The American Campaign, Second Edition: U.S. Presidential Campaigns and the National VoteTexas A&M University Press, 2008年1月14日 - 336 頁 Reporting data and predicting trends through the 2008 campaign, this classroom-tested volume offers again James E. Campbell’s “theory of the predictable campaign,” incorporating the fundamental conditions that systematically affect the presidential vote: political competition, presidential incumbency, and election-year economic conditions. Campbell’s cogent thinking and clear style present students with a readable survey of presidential elections and political scientists’ ways of studying them. The American Campaign also shows how and why journalists have mistakenly assigned a pattern of unpredictability and critical significance to the vagaries of individual campaigns. This excellent election-year text provides: a summary and assessment of each of the serious predictive models of presidential election outcomes; a historical summary of many of America’s important presidential elections; a significant new contribution to the understanding of presidential campaigns and how they matter. |
內容
The Impact of Presidential Campaigns | 3 |
The Theory of the Predictable Campaign | 26 |
Studying the Effects of Campaigns | 49 |
The Stable Context of the Campaign | 79 |
Presidential Incumbency | 102 |
The Economic Context of the Campaign | 128 |
The Normal Course of the Campaign | 143 |
Electoral Competition and Unsystematic Campaign Effects | 165 |
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actual vote advantage Al Gore analysis approval ratings Bill Clinton campaign effects Campbell candidate's Carter Clinton competitive context convention bumps debate difference early deciders effects of campaigns elec election campaign election day election forecasting election results election-year economy electoral votes error evaluations favored forecasting model frontrunner's frontrunners Gallup Poll George H. W. Bush George W growth rate Holbrook Hubert Humphrey identifiers impact in-party candidate incumbent presidents independent indicates issues Jimmy Carter John Kerry landslide late deciders late-deciding voters loyalty rates major-party narrowing effect national vote Nixon nomic paign partisans partisanship party identification party's candidate party's nomination percent percentage points poll lead pre-campaign predictable campaign preference poll presidential campaigns presidential elections presidential incumbency presidential vote Reagan realignment reelection regression Republican Richard Nixon Ross Perot Senator survey systematic tion trailing candidates trial-heat polls two-party vote variable vote choice vote decisions vote intentions vote percentages winning