網頁圖片
PDF
ePub 版
[blocks in formation]
[graphic][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed]

CHAPTER IX

UNSOLVED PROBLEMS

The future of the Siberian railways-The fate of China—The Yellow Peril-The flooding of the markets of the world-C. H. Pearson's theory-Lord Curzon's-The common-sense view-The reconstitution of China-Contrast between Russia and that country -The future of Japan-Her methods-The coming struggle-Its outcome-The mission of civilisation.

THE questions connected with the Far East are complicated by a number of problems which provide material for speculation. Of these the most important concern the future of the races competing for the mastery of empire: the Russians, Chinese and Japanese, between whom rests the future dominion over further Asia; and an examination of the claims of each results in the formulating of a series of paradoxes on the outcome of which their fate depends.

In regard to Russia, the most vital question of the moment is the probable effect of the completion of the Siberian and Manchurian railways on her fortunes. It has by dint of oft-repeated iteration come to be accepted as an established fact, that the outcome of these railways will be to so strengthen the Muscovite grip over Northern China as to enable her to dominate that country. It appears to be agreed that by means of the Siberian trunk line she will be able to hurl an unlimited number of men across Asia for the attainment of any end she may desire. I have heard it suggested more than once that, as soon as her communications are completed, Russia will attain a position of such strength on the Pacific as to enable her to laugh at any attempt to oust her from her advantage,

and render her invulnerable to attack alike from without and within.

I do not find myself in accord with this reasoning, and am of opinion that the direct outcome of the completion of her railways will be far less than is generally supposed. It must be borne in mind that a line of railway does not shorten the distance between any two points; it merely lessens the time requisite to cover it, and renders the journey less fatiguing. The extent to which this occurs depends partly on the distance to be covered and partly on the quality of the line and the accommodation it affords. It must further be noted that the Siberian railways, as at present designed, are cheaply constructed, lightly built, and that they consist of a single line of rail. In these facts we have endless causes of delay, and the further possibility of the whole means of transport being rendered temporarily useless by an accident or breakdown. It must not be forgotten that in reckoning the time necessary to cover any given distance by rail, allowance must be made, not only for the delays due to changing engines, taking in coal and water, and, in the case of a single line, waiting for trains going in the opposite direction to pass at given points; but it is further needful to allow double the time necessary for a train to perform the journey, for the reason that, when arrived at its destination, it becomes useless until it is returned to its starting point, preparatory to setting out on a second journey with a fresh load.

Reckoning the distance from the Urals to Vladivostok or Port Arthur at 4,000 miles, and taking the average speed of the trains as being twelve miles an hour, which is the maximum possible over so lightly constructed a road for heavy traffic, the net running time requisite to cover the distance is thirteen days. To this must be added the time necessary to coal and water, to wait for connections or passing trains, and to allow for unpreventible delays, for which an allowance of four days will not be too great. The journey will thus occupy seventeen days. As the empty trains will have to return to the starting-point before they

SIBERIAN RAILWAY PROBLEMS

177

can perform a second journey, and the amount of available rolling stock must necessarily have a limit, the time for the return journey must be added to that occupied in the journey out, and we find that the capacity of a single train is limited to the performance of one trip out and home in thirty-four days, say five weeks. There must invariably be a considerable delay at the termini owing to the necessity of overhauling the rolling stock and making good any damage sustained; and the question then arises, how many trains will be available for the conveyance of an army? With stations twenty miles apart it will be possible in the case of a speed of twelve miles an hour to despatch trains at an interval of four hours, or, if the traffic be continued without break, six trains each day; and placing the carrying capacity of each train at 500 men with their impedimenta, we find it is possible to despatch 3,000 men daily on the four weeks' journey. To keep this activity in operation until the first train finds its way back at the starting-point again, after an interval of four weeks, would entail the existence of 168 trains, which in that period would have carried 84,000 men, provided everything had worked without a hitch. It would be possible for Great Britain to despatch the same number of men in fifty transports from England to any part of the Far East in forty days, without causing any exceptional strain on her resources. Indeed, during the war in South Africa, Britain executed this feat by landing 170,644 men and their horses and impedimenta 7,000 miles away from her shores within the space of fifteen weeks. Japan could of course throw an equal body of troops into Russian or Chinese territory with much greater speed; and the facts quoted show that any Russian attempt to mobilise a large force in the Far East must be anticipated by the action of her rivals in that quarter.

Thus the completion of the Siberian railways will not afford Russia any material advantage in point of speedy transport of large bodies of troops, over those attainable by the sea route. Putting the distance between the Black Sea and the gulf of Pechili at 10,000 miles, it follows that

N

« 上一頁繼續 »