CONTENTS Foreword.. Factors influencing foreign trade_ Gold, silver, and capital movements_ Foreign trade and domestic industry. United States share in world trade.. Exports by commodities and by economic classes. Exports of agricultural and of nonagricultural products.. Crude foodstuffs.. Manufactured foodstuffs. Finished manufactures_ Semimanufactures. Imports by commodities and by economic classes.. Leading import commodities__ Imports of agricultural and of nonagricultural products. Drought-affected products. Distribution of imports by economic classes_ Crude materials_ Foodstuffs_. Semimanufactures.. Finished manufactures_ Geographic distribution of foreign trade.. Distribution of exports by trade regions_ Changes in exports by regions and by countries_ Europe... Latin America_ Northern North America_. Asia Oceania Africa_. Imports from all trade regions lower- Distribution of imports by trade regions_ Changes in imports by regions and by countries. Europe.. Latin America.... Northern North America_ Asia_ Oceania ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! LIST OF TABLES TOTAL EXPORTS AND IMPORTS 1. Merchandise exports, imports, and balance of trade, 1891-1938-. 4. Exports, imports, percent change, and balance of trade, by quarters-- 6. Indexes of changes in value of merchandise trade, adjusted for seasonal variation, 1929-38__. UNITED STATES OF AMERICA JUN 24 39 CONTENTS III DISTRIBUTION BY ECONOMIC CLASSES AND BY COMMODITIES 7. Foreign trade in merchandise by economic classes, agricultural and nonagricultural, 1910-38____ 8. Economic character of foreign trade, by quarters, 1936-38-. 9. Percentage increase or decrease in foreign trade by economic classes, 1938___ 10. Percentage distribution of exports of United States merchandise, by classes and by principal commodities, 1926-38--. 11. Percentage distribution of imports, by classes and by principal commodities, 1926-38 12. Annual indexes of changes in quantity, unit value (price), and total value of exports of United States merchandise, by economic classes, 1913 and 1921–38----. 13. Annual indexes of changes in quantity, unit value (price), and total value of imports, by economic classes, 1913 and 1921–38_. 14. Quarterly and monthly indexes of changes in quantity, unit value (price), and total value of exports of United States merchandise, by economic classes_. 15. Quarterly and monthly indexes of changes in quantity, unit value (price), and total value of imports, by economic classes_ 16. Exports of agricultural and of nonagricultural products, 1901-38. 17. Agricultural exports, by major groups of commodities, 1926-38 18. Agricultural imports, by major groups of commodities, 1926–3819. Exports of leading commodities, 1926-38.. 20. Imports of leading commodities, 1926-38 21. Exports (United States merchandise) and imports, by groups and subgroups, 1926-38- 22. Exports of principal commodities, by groups, 1926-38. 23. Imports of principal commodities, by groups, 1926-38 GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION OF FOREIGN TRADE 24. Exports (including reexports) and general imports of merchandise, by continents and by countries, 1926-38-. 25. Balance of United States trade, by continents and regions, 1926–38_ 26. Distribution of trade with continents, by quarters, 1936–38_ 27. Trade with agreement countries and with nonagreement countries, 1937-38__ 28. Trade with agreement countries and with countries announced for negotiation. 29. Percentage distribution of exports and imports, by continents and by leading countries, 1926-38_. 30. Percent increase or decrease in foreign trade, by continents and by leading countries, 1926-37.. 31. Foreign trade with each continent, by economic classes; total and agricultural, 1926–38_. 57 32. Percentage of each economic class in adjusted exports to North America and to Europe, 1926-38- 33. Percentage of each economic class and of agricultural and nonagricultural commodities in the total trade with each continent, 1926-38... 34. Percent each continent takes or furnishes of total trade in each economic class and of total agricultural and nonagricultural commodities, 1926-38___ 53 53 54 59 36. Exports of leading commodities in relation to production, 1923, 1929, 1933, and 1938_. 35. Production of movable goods and proportion exported in each census year, 1909-37__ 60 61 61 NOTE Previous issues of the Bureau's annual series Foreign Trade of the United States in the Calendar Year were issued as Trade Information Bulletins Nos. 104, 225, 332, 387, 460, 537, 602, 684, 749, and 808, and Trade Promotion Series Nos. 151, 156, 162, 166, and 174. Previous issues of the annual series Summary of United States Trade With World were issued as Trade Information Bulletins Nos. 791, 822, 831, 837, and 839. FOREWORD This bulletin, the seventeenth in an annual series on United States foreign trade, contains a statistical and analytical summary for the calendar year 1938. The text deals chiefly with the changes in trade during 1938 as compared with the preceding year, although trends relative to other recent years are necessarily considered. Outstanding features of the trade for the year 1938 were the maintenance of a relatively high volume of exports and the sharp drop in imports. Exports of some commodities grains, tobacco, and certain finished manufactures were much larger than in the preceding year, but these increases were offset by decreases in other manufactured articles and in raw cotton. Imports were down 28 percent in quantity and 36 percent in value as compared with 1937, notwithstanding the rising tendency of the trade in the latter half of the year. The decrease in commodity prices and the greatly reduced imports of industrial materials and certain foodstuffs were largely responsible for this marked reduction in the import value. The annual review this year will be published in two parts, of which this is the first. Part II, to be issued at a later date, will cover the commodity trade by countries. The tables in part I present the data provided in the Summary of United States Trade With World, issued by this Bureau from 1931 to 1937, inclusive, and certain of the data formerly shown in Foreign Trade of the United States in the Calendar Year, issued from 1922 through 1936. Statistics for 1938 in this bulletin are preliminary and are subject to revision. The reader's attention is directed to the change in the basis of the commodity statistics from "general imports" in 1933 to "imports for consumption" in 1934. General imports cover merchandise entering consumption channels immediately upon arrival in the United States, plus entries into bonded warehouses; while imports for consumption cover merchandise entering consumption channels immediately upon arrival, plus withdrawals for consumption from bonded warehouses. The change in the basis of reporting is indicated in headnotes to the various tables. The values stated are in United States dollars without reference to changes in the gold content of the dollar. (The statutory price of gold, $20.67 an ounce, in effect prior to January 31, 1934, was changed on that date by Executive order to $35 an ounce). The present bulletin was prepared in the Division of Business Review, under the general supervision of M. Joseph Meehan, Chief, with the assistance of various members of the staff of that Division. As in other recent years, Grace A. Witherow, who is responsible for the text and the arrangement of the report, received the cooperation of various specialists in other Divisions in preparing some parts of the analysis. APRIL 1939. N. H. ENGLE, Acting Director, Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce. FOREIGN TRADE OF THE UNITED STATES, CALENDAR YEAR, 1938 Part I. SUMMARY INTRODUCTION The value of the foreign trade of the United States declined in 1938; but the drop in imports considerably exceeded the decline in exports, and the export balance was the largest since 1921. The reduction in imports of raw materials and of certain farm products which had been unusually large in 1937, together with lower prices, led to a decrease of more than one-third in the value of imports from 1937 to $1,961,000,000. Large exports of grain and of some manufactured articles supported the export total at the same high volume as in 1937, and the value, at $3,094,000,000, was off only 8 percent. The decreases in 1938 followed 5 years of expansion during which our foreign trade more than doubled in value. Midyear of 1938 marked a change in the trend of both exports and imports. At that time some of the special factors which had been sustaining exports gave way to the influences tending to retard the movement of goods abroad, and subsequently the seasonally corrected value of exports moved steadily lower. Conversely, the sharp rise in domestic business activity in the latter half of 1938 caused imports to move upward from the low midyear totals. Exports dropped below the preceding year's figure in each month from April through December. Imports also were smaller than in the corresponding months of 1937, but the reduction was not so large in the latter half of the year. Exports were considerably larger than imports throughout the year, though the disparity was reduced in the closing months. With the volume of exports holding at 1937 levels and domestic production reduced, the proportion of our output of movable goods which went abroad rose to the highest figure since 1930. The demand from foreign markets in 1938 was an important sustaining influence on the volume of production in the United States, particularly in the first half of the year, when domestic trade underwent a substantial shrinkage. Factors Influencing Foreign Trade. Many factors influenced the foreign trade movement of the United States in 1938, but a few were of outstanding importance. Among these were the good crops in the United States in 1937 which coincided with low yields in other important exporting countries; the relatively favorable level of business activity in foreign countries which stimulated demands for a wide range of goods, especially in the first half of 1938; and the armament programs of various nations in Europe and the Far East. The trade agreements operated throughout the year as a force tending to foster our trade. While numerous other factors aided in sustaining the value of United States exports in 1938, these just mentioned were the major determinants. Local conditions, changes in tariffs, or changes in the currency values and other specific conditions which played a part are discussed in some instances, in connection with the trade by commodities or the trade with a particular country. On the import side, the marked recession in business activity in the United States extending from June 1937 through the first half of 1938, the improved yields of domestic crops as compared with 1936, and lower prices were unquestionably the major influences in the large reduction in the value of imports in 1938, just as the reverse conditions were mainly responsible for the high level of imports during 1937. Although the incipient movement toward moderation of trade barriers which was noticeable in a number of countries during 1937 was largely checked in 1938 (partly as a result of the renewed economic recession, with its reaction upon prices and the financial position of various nations), the trade agreement program of the United States Government, with its liberating influence, moved forward to add three additional countries during 1938 to the 16 with which agreements were in effect at the beginning of the year. The conclusion of the trade agreement between the United Kingdom and the United States in November (to become effective January 1, 1939), which embraced also the various non-self-governing British Colonies, was an outstanding development in the direction of freer movement of goods in international trade. Between them, the United Kingdom (including the colonial areas) and the United States account for close to 30 percent of total international trade. The revision at the same time of the trade agreement of 1936 between Canada and the United States, in amplified scope, may be regarded as evidence of the mutually beneficial character of this type of trade agreement. It is not possible to isolate and to measure the trade agreements' influence on trade between the participating countries apart from that of the other economic factors mentioned above. However, the aggregates of our trade with agreement countries and with nonagreement countries, together with percentages of change, are shown in tables 27 and 28. The countries, together with their colonies, with which the 17 reciprocal trade agreements were in effect during all or part of the year 1938, accounted for two-fifths of the total foreign trade of the United States. Including the new agreement which came into force late in 1938 (that with Ecuador) and that with the United Kingdom (including the colonial areas) effective at the beginning of 1939, the 19 trade-agreement countries account for approximately three-fifths of the total trade of the United States. The effective periods of the agreements with each country, are shown in the notes to tables 27 and 28, while trade figures by countries are in table 24.1 1 For a complete review, see Foreign Tariffs and Commercial Policies During 1938, in COMMERCE REPORTS of February 4, 1939; also, 1938 Results Under the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Program, in CoмMERCE REPORTS of February 18, 1939. Reprints of both articles may be obtained from the Bureau or from any of its District Offices. |