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and that of a very short time-with the Power that happens to get hold of the said points, for, considering the disfavour with which the Tchihar-Aimaks and the Hezares are viewing the Afghan régime, it will be an easy matter for a well-regulated European Power to conciliate the sympathy of these populations, and, sustained by their goodwill, to obtain possession of Herat."

CHAPTER VIII.

RUSSIA'S CHANCES OF CONQUERING HERAT.

HAVING demonstrated the importance of Herat as a starting-point for armies, caravans-nay, for single travellers, on a march towards India, I may now proceed to sketch briefly the chances Russia enjoys for her future schemes upon that town, supposing, as I do, that nobody expects her remaining in Penjdeh or in Pul-i-Khatun, and that these two points will form but the last station of her advance towards the south.

But, first of all, we must point to the facilities Russia will acquire through her immediate neighbourhood with the Tchihar-Aimaks, tribes living under the unsettled rule of the Afghans, and who, even with the most peaceful dispositions, can hardly avoid becoming causes of frontier troubles and sundry dissensions. The Russians, located at Penjdeh, and taking particular care of their Sarik subjects, will very soon find fault either with the Jemshidis on the Khushk, or with the Hezares and

Firuzkuhis, on the Upper Murghab. Of the lurking hostilities between the Afghans and Russians, with whom the catastrophe of the 30th of March will always remain fresh in memory, I will not I will not speak at all, being almost sure that the variance subsisting between these two new neighbours can hardly disappear without a fresh act of revenge. Add to

this the boundless ambition of the Russian officers at the frontier: their insatiable lust for decorations and promotions, and above all, the longago settled line of policy to take Herat, whatever may be the assurances of the Czar to the contrary; and we may be fully convinced that the dormant desire for the possession of that city will not remain long unfulfilled.

It has been made lately the subject of special speculation of English political writers that the Court of St. Petersburg, in order to disguise its real line of policy, means either to hand over that town to the Persians, or by using Ayoob Khan, the most formidable rival of Abdurrahman Khan, as a puppet in his place, will reserve this protégé of hers for her future schemes. I believe none of these suppositions to be well-founded; for, admitting that Ayoob Khan's imprisonment in Teheran be only a respectful detention, and that he is very likely to be let loose on the outbreak of serious complications, I

still firmly believe that Russia will never trust any allies or puppets, but that she will take the place into her own hands, will fortify it, and, by connecting it with the railway running from Sarakhs along the Heri-Rud, will succeed in making of the ancient capital of Khorassan the commercial centre and place d'armes this town has at all times been, and is capable of being in the future. In fact, what Tiflis has become to the Caucasus, Herat will become to eastern Khorassan; and, I may add, in a comparatively shorter time, and with much greater facilities, for there are no troublesome warlike ethnical elements to be conquered and to be kept down, such as were the Circassians, Tchetchentzians, Lezghians, etc. In Herat no Sheikh Shamil can come forward to unfurl the banner of holy war, and to wage a protracted struggle against Russia.

It has been generally overlooked that, with the possession of Herat, Russia will get an undisputed sway over the whole country stretching in the north towards the Oxus; I mean not only over Maimene and Andkhoi, but also over Kunduz, Aktche, Serpul, and Shiburgan-nay, over the whole of Afghan Turkestan, where the entire structure of Afghan power rests upon rotten foundations, and may be at any moment overthrown. I do not allude to the dubious condition of fidelity and allegiance of Ishak

Khan, the Governor of Balkh, the dear cousin of the present ruler of Kabul, who behaves like a semiindependent prince, and has looked for a long time with longing eyes towards Tashkend; but I allude to the ethnical and political condition of this country on the left bank of the Oxus, such an one as greatly favours Russian intentions in a district which has been constantly undermined during the last years. As to the political claims, we have had many opportunities of seeing how Russian newspaper-writers, travellersnay, statesmen and military authorities, were zealous to vindicate the right of the Emir of Bokhara to these countries, a right which is historically well founded; for beginning with the appearance of the Turk on the scene of events up to recent times, the small aforesaid khanates, including Andkhoi and Maimene, have been really governed from the banks of the Zerefshan, and have been regarded as dependencies of the khanate of Bokhara. Concerning the ethnical conditions, we must point out that the preponderating majority of the inhabitants are Turks. The Ersari Turkomans, mixed with other clans of the same nationality, are living on the left banks of the Oxus, from Tchardjui, beyond Kodja-Salih, whilst the Achmayli in Serpul, the Ming and Daz in Maimene, the Kungrat in Aktche, the Kiptchaks in the environs of Balkh, the Kangli in Khulm,

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