countries advance in population, the cultivation of inferior soils must increase the cost of raising raw produce, while the division of labour will reduce the expense of working it up. Hence, in new settlements, the increasing value of raw produce must gradually check its exportation, and the falling value of wrought goods progressively prevent their importation. But no state need entertain apprehensions that their neighbours will improve to such a degree in every art and manufacture as to have no demand for their commodities. Commercial intercourse between nations must always exist in those articles in the production of which the immutable circumstances of soil and climate, and the natural or accidental circumstance of difference of genius, or of a direction of industry in a peculiar manner to particular productions, give one country an advantage over another. Nature, by giving these diversities to different nations, has secured their mutual intercourse and commerce, which must increase as the advantage of a single direction of industry to a few productions becomes better understood; while as nations become richer, the larger will be their demands from their industrious neighbours. What, in the long vista of futurity, shall be the ultimate result of the progression of our species, the advance of population, and the increasing difficulty of cultivating inferior soils, is of small moment to inquire. That it must be such as may be contemplated with satisfaction, rather than despondency, several reasons induce us to believe. Hitherto, this progress has contributed to raise us in the scale of civilization, and tended to the increase of our wealth, our comfort, and our piety. With the concentration of population, the division and combination of labour, the accumulation and economy of capital, and the advance of science and the arts, the power of man over the creation has been augmented, and has more than kept pace with the increasing difficulty of cultivating inferior soils. If a term exist, at which this augmentation of power in relation to the increasing difficulty of cultivation will cease, and which the history of the species shall fix upon as the point of the termination of its forward progression, and, perhaps, the commencement of its decline, it must be at so great distance, that it would be folly to think of making provision for it.

CHAPTER XV.

ON SUPPLY AND DEMAND.

THE full powers of industry cannot be brought into exercise, nor the full fruits reaped which labour is calculated to yield, unless the supply and demand of labour and of commodities approach within a certain measure of equality with each other; and the nearer they approach, the more successful will be the results of exertion.

The universal division of employments, which increases almost in a miraculous degree the productive powers of labour, is sometimes accompanied with inconvenience. The complex system of civilized society, like a powerful and complex machine, must require a more careful and skilful guidance in proportion to its magnitude, its force, and the intricacy of its parts. Happily the moving principles by which industry is urged forward, as well as the multitudinous parts of which human society is composed, were framed by the great Author of nature, and are so adapted to their ends, that they accomplish them without extraneous interference, and in a manner incomparably more accurate and more effectual than any human superintendence could ever induce. The great masses of supply and demand preserve an equipoise, yet fail to attract notice; the vibrations in the balance excite attention, though they are trivial in comparison with them.

Before a distribution of employments had taken place, and while each man acquired, or produced and prepared for himself, everything which he used or consumed, there was little inquiry or experience necessary to ascertain when his supply of any particular article was equal to his want of it. When such was the case, he immediately desisted from procuring more of this article, and directed his attention to the acquisition or production of some other of which he stood in need. In the rude state of the arts which then prevailed, every individual was skilled in every art that was known; and having the necessary,

though simple, implements used in all, he could follow every known occupation. In such a state, supply and demand naturally adjusted themselves to one another, and were never disproportionate; there was no anxiety to procure a profitable sale; few exchanges were attempted; and there was scarcely such. thing as profit. Though every man's supply on the whole was scanty, yet the exertion of labour never failed of its expected reward, through the want of a profitable vend for its produce, and every man's supply was proportionate to his industry and his skill.

But since the distribution of employments has been established, men in general are unacquainted with more than one of the innumerable arts of civilized life, and are mostly incompetent to engage with advantage in any other. In the greater number of the arts, a long time is necessary, and considerable difficulties present themselves, in acquiring the requisite knowledge and skill for their practice, in the state of perfection to which they have arrived. This is the case as regards even one only among them; much more as regards several. And without this knowledge and skill, they cannot be engaged in with success. Besides, great expense must be incurred in procuring the necessary tools, implements, or machines, and in constructing workshops, buildings, and premises suited to carry on many trades. Hence it is necessary, before embarking in any business, to ascertain, not what are the articles of which the individual himself stands in need, which could be easily done, but, what is more difficult,-whether the supply of the market of the particular article proposed to be produced is commensurate with the demand for it; whether this demand is likely to continue for some time equal to the supply; and whether the individual himself is able to produce the article at so cheap a cost as to procure a profitable vend. This is not often easy; neither is there always much confidence to be placed in the conclusion as to futurity that may be arrived at. Thus all the time and expense incurred are uncertain of producing a return, and are always liable to be lost, by an excess in the supply of the article in the market over the demand for it, which may render it expedient to abandon the business and turn to some other. In such a state of things, it is not enough that a man be

industrious; he must be industrious in producing only such articles as will readily sell with a profit, under the existing costs of production. A duty devolves on him, which was unknown in a less advanced state of society,-that of continually directing his attention to the state of the market; because, in the smallness of profits which a general opulence occasions, a slight variation in prices may occasion, either a considerable profit, or a considerable loss. Without this attention, manufacturers may be in distress, not in consequence of idleness, but of working too much; and agriculture become a losing occupation, not from the deficiency, but from the abundance of its products.

The great practical problem is, to direct industry into the several occupations in such proportions to one another as that the whole quantity of the products furnished by each may be in request, and readily exchanged against each other, with such mutual advantage to the parties, as to yield to all the proper fruits of labour. In this problem is involved the welfare not only of the particular individuals themselves who are engaged in business, but also that of the community at large. When the different sorts of merchandise are produced in these proportions to each other, or when, in the language of political economy, the supply is limited to the effectual demand, and the respective producers are content to accept a fair equivalent for what they give, every article produced finds a ready and a profitable vend. No conceivable increase of production so proportioned can overstock the market; but every addition to the supply would be met by a corresponding increase in effectual demand; limited only by those bounds which are set to increased production. This prosperous state of things is immediately interrupted, when the different sorts of commodities are produced in proportions either unsuitable to each other, or when the producers on either side decline to accept what people are able and willing to give for their commodities. In this case a glut ensues, and business becomes suspended. Hence, from the happy results on one hand, and the disastrous consequences on the other, with the frequency of the recurrence of gluts, and the suspension of industry, the inquiry as to their causes, and the means by which they may be averted, is one of high importance and interest.

The demand for food is limited by the mouths which are to eat it; for clothes by the persons who are to wear them. Yet although we can eat but a moderate quantity of food, drink but a certain quantity of liquors, and but a moderate quantity of clothing is sufficient for every purpose of warmth and protection from the weather, still the human mind is so constituted that the quantity of the labours of others which the generality of persons desire to acquire and consume has no bounds. There is no family that would not be rich and great, if these were within its power. We cannot fix the limit to the acquisition of wealth, and the consumption of the conveniences and ornaments of dress, equipage, buildings, and household furniture, which pride, vanity, rivalry, and self-indulgence would induce. Though a community, or a part of a community, may have as much food and clothing as it may wish to consume, it can never be said of the quality of that food and clothing, that it is such as to satiate every wish; neither can the same be said of every other production of nature or art. If food and clothing of a plain and common kind were ever possessed in plenty, these would be laid aside for such as are of superior quality or workmanship, when they could be acquired. If food and clothing of the highest imaginable excellence were possessed in abundance, yet to enlarge or improve our houses, to fill them with splendid furniture and works of taste, to decorate our grounds, would still seem desirable. The wish to do some or all of these things is implanted in every man's breast; and nothing prevents or puts a limit to expenditure but the want of means to spend, or the sacrifice of so much toil in the acquisition of these means as would more than counterbalance the pleasure of spending. No sooner has a greater facility of acquisition placed at the disposal of men an increased quantity of objects of wealth, than their desires and wants enlarge to the full extent of the facility afforded to their gratification. And it is well that we are so constituted. Were man without aspirations after a higher state of enjoyment; were he the sober, chastened, and easily contented animal which it has been sometimes wished that he were; did a mere shelter from the weather, and a sufficiency of wholesome food and coarse clothing, satisfy his wishes; he would probably have