petrochemicals. The Taching oilfield also recently completed a large chemical fertilizer plant based upon natural gas, capable of producing a million tons of various fertilizers annually. Szechuan Province has nearly 100 small nitrogenous plants plus a number of large plants, all based upon natural gas. Kwangtung Province also has a growing number of fertilizer plants, particularly small ones.

PHOSPHATES

China's phosphate rock resources are widespread throughout the eastern and southern areas of the country. Most of the deposits are sedimentary rather than igneous in origin. Reserves are large, but the quality is uneven and often low grade. The best known deposits are located in the provinces of Yunnan, Kweichow, Hunan, and Hupeh. In Yunnan there are open pit and underground mines in the Kunming and Kunyang areas and probably apatite deposits near the Vietnam border. The Kaiyang region of Kweichow, with more than one large mine, has been worked for a decade. Liuyang, Shihmen, and Huachiao are known locations of phosphate mining in Hunan where output has risen tenfold since 1965. The Chinghsiang mine in Hupeh had an annual capacity of 600,000 tpy of phosphate rock. A 20-million-ton phosphate deposit may have been discovered in the Chaoy anglin area of Kiangsi Province.

Phosphates are found in many localities in Foshan, Kwangtung Province. A large deposit of high grade ore was recently reported for the Hsuai-yi-ling area on the shores of Tatu River in Szechnan Province. A large phosphate rock deposit has been found at Fanshan, Chulu Hsien, Hopeh Province." This deposit is said to be the largest of its kind found in North China, and will mean that phosphate rock from faraway Hunan and Kweichow Provinces will no longer have to be shipped in. Actually Shantung has many small phosphate opera

tions also.

PRC China's phosphate rock production may have risen to about 4 million tpy. A few years ago imports may have reached 2 million tpy, mainly from Morocco and the Lao Cay apatite deposit in northern Vietnam. When Morocco tripled its price, Chinese imports dwindled to small tonnages. Morocco has since cut its prices, perhaps making it again attractive to import high grade ore.

The bulk of the phosphate rock supply is converted to chemical phosphates, although some is directly applied in the ground form. China has about 1,500 small phosphates plants (430 in Shantung Province) which together produce three-quarters of the country's chemical phosphate production totaling possibly 10 million tpy. Relatively large superphosphate plants that have been mentioned in the press include Nanking, Changsha in Hunan, Hunghochou in Yunnan, Shanghai, Taiyuan in Shansi, Canton and Chanchiang in Kwangtung, and Tunghsiang in Kiangsi.

40 Takungpao (Peking). Dec. 29, 1976.

41 New China News Agency. Jan. 21, 1977.

3. Power capacity and generation (1976-77).

426

4. The hydroelectric and thermal powerplants of 30 megawatts and higher... 5. Typical thermal power station_

427

433

6. Electric power equipment manufacturing plants....

434

TABLES

1. Electric power generating capacity, 1949-77_

407

2. Electric power generation plant and equipment purchased by China, 1972-76_

408

3. Milestones in Chinese electric power development.

410

4. Electric power generating capacity by province, December 31, 19775. Electric power generated, 1949-77

412

413

6. Major Chinese hydroelectric systems..

418

7. Required electric power generating capacity to support industrial growth rates of 8, 10, and 12 percent, 1978-2000.

422

(403)

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

There exists a widespread shortage of electric power in the People's Republic of China (PRC) today that is adversely affecting the economy and which must be corrected quickly if the program to modernize industry, agriculture, science, and technology, and national defense is to be successfully implemented. Electric power is a "vanguard" industry which in a developing country like China must advance at a pace 1.3 or 1.4 times that of industry generally.

The shortrun solution to the power shortage is being sought in the fall 1977 directives of Chairman Hua calling for conservation, fuller utilization of existing generating capacity, and its more efficient operation. In the longer run, China will place reliance on the continued development of both hydroelectric and thermal power stations. No nuclear stations are currently operative, but the Chinese will probably soon begin one. Although both large and small power stations will continue to be built, the greater emphasis will be placed on development of China's hydroelectric potential, the largest in the world. Currently, the PRC is the fourth largest producer of primary energy in the world after the United States, the Soviet Union, and Saudi Arabia.

In 1977, the PRC's electric power industry generated about 136 billion kilowatt-hours of power or 6 to 7 percent that of the United States. This was enough to place China ninth in power output. Installed capacity on December 31, 1977, was estimated to be 40,500 megawatts. The bulk of this capacity is found in the 192 known thermal and hydro stations of 30 megawatts capacity and over. Of these, 126 units are thermal stations and 66 are hydroelectric, some are currently under construction or are being expanded. Additional stations of this capacity or greater are thought to exist. About 62 percent of the capacity is thermal, the balance hydroelectric.

To adequately support a 10-percent rate of industrial growth, the power industry would need to add about 5,300 megawatts to capacity this year, a 13-percent rate of growth, and about 12,700 megawatts in 1985 to provide capacities of 45,800 and 108,000 megawatts, respectively. The domestic power equipment manufacturing industry, while quite substantial, does not appear capable of meeting this requirement. Thus, if a 10-percent industrial growth is to be achieved, Peking will have to import power plants and equipment from abroad possibly expending as much as $300 million annually during the period 1978-85.

It does not appear that between now and 1980 the electric power industry can accelerate growth to the level to support a 10-percent industrial rate of growth, 1978-80. It does seem possible, however, that by 1981 acceleration of developments in the industry could support such industrial growth. To achieve this the Chinese will need to:

(a) Invest heavily in the development of the coal industry;

(b) Improve rail transport and develop "mine mouth" thermal plants to reduce coal hauling;

(c) Sharply reduce station construction times, especially on large hydro plants;

(d) Develop higher capacity transmission systems;

(e) Accelerate the development of 600-megawatt boilers and turbogenerators;

(f) Expand the domestic power equipment manufacturing industry; and

(g) Engage in a consistent and planned import of complete foreign powerplants and equipment.

INTRODUCTION

The Energy Base

The People's Republic of China is the fourth largest producer of primary energy in the world after the United States, the Soviet Union, and Saudi Arabia. Output is about one-fifth that of the United States and one-third that of the Soviet Union. It also ranks fourth in the consumption of energy after the United States, the U.S.S.R., and Japan. Reserves of energy are among the most extensive in the world and are still in a relatively early stage of exploitation. The hydroelectric potential is the greatest in the world and coal reserves are third after the United States and the U.S.S. R. China has been awakened to the size and potential of its petroleum resources only in the past 15 years. To this day it is doubtful if the People's Republic of China has a full and accurate appraisal of the extent of its petroleum reserves. Information available outside of China on natural gas reserves is sketchy.

The hydroelectric potential of the People's Republic of China has been given recently as 540,000 megawatts (MW) located principally in Tibet and in the mountainous southwestern provinces.' The Yangtze River alone constitutes about 40 percent of the potential. To the north of the Yangtze in drier regions lies the Yellow River with the most developed hydroelectric facilities, but with only 5 percent of the runoff of the Yangtze. Currently, only about 1 percent of China's primary energy supply is derived from hydro resources, placing China 12th in the world in hydroelectric power generation; production is about 14 percent of the United States, the world leader.

Coal has long been China's traditional source of energy. Proven reserves run about 80 billion metric tons and are located in many parts of the country, but principally north of the Yangtze River. Although development of the industry has been hampered by inadequate investment, coal production was 450 million metric tons in 1976 and was around 500 million tons in 1977. Recent investments in foreign mining equipment indicate that some priority is now being given this industry, but it will take years to bring productivity up to world standards. Coal now supplies about two-thirds of the primary energy of the People's Republic of China. Such minor fuels as peat and firewood are excluded from this energy analysis.

With the opening of the Taching, Shengli, and Takang oil fields in the 1960's, China became an oil producer of world rank running 10th in production in 1976; about 80 percent of a daily production of 1.8 million barrels at the beginning of 1978 came from these three fields. China's onshore reserves of oil are believed to total 40 billion barrels while estimates of offshore reserves are much more speculative, but potentially quite significant. Oil accounts for 23 percent of the energy supply. About 90 percent of the natural gas reserves, estimated at 25 trillion cubic feet, are found in Szechwan Province

1 Hydro reserves that are technically feasible to develop are thought to be about half of this. Relevant figures for the United States are 390,000 and 179,000 megawatts.

with the gas share of total energy supply being 10 percent. China ranks fifth in natural gas production, but output is only about 7 percent of the world leader, again the United States.2

DEVELOPMENT OF THE INDUSTRY (1949-75)

Early Stages

The economy of China was severely damaged by the Sino-Japanese War (1937-45) and by the civil war that ensued after the close of World War II and up until 1949 when Communist forces consolidated control over the country. Industrial production was reduced, agriculture was curtailed and the transport system disrupted. After the Japanese surrendered to the Russians in Manchuria in 1945, the Soviets dismantled heavy industrial facilities and shipped the equipment back to the U.S.S.R. Surveys later showed that about 50 percent of the Manchurian industrial capacity was affected in this way. Included in these shipments were about 1,000 megawatts of turbogenerating capacity, including both thermal and hydro units. By December 31, 1949, the total installed electric power generating capacity of the People's Republic of China stood at only 1,800 megawatts, down from the 1944 peak of 3,100 megawatts.3 Thus, China's electric power generating capability at the end of the revolution was less than the present capacity of the Grand Coulee hydroelectric station or the Kansas City Power & Light Co.

As the Chinese leadership surveyed the task ahead, they were quite aware of Lenin's dicta that "communism equals Soviet power (strength) plus electrification" and "without an electrification plan we cannot carry out real construction." Later, in a 1958 directive, Chairman Mao put it more simply when he said, "electric power is the pioneer of the national economy." The years 1949-51 were devoted primarily to restoring order in the economy and in the power industry preparatory to the planned development under the first 5-year plan.

China's first 5-year plan (1952-57) projected additions of new capacity of 2,050 megawatts or a doubling of the installed capacity at the end of 1952. The actual additions turned out to be about 2,900 megawatts, well above plan. Of this, new units at the Tafengman and Supung hydrostations in the Northeast to replace those removed by the Soviets totaled 600 megawatts. The feat of more than doubling capacity was accomplished by significant help from the Soviet Union, Czechoslovakia, and East Germany who supplied turbines and generators and who established power-generating equipment production facilities which, even today, remain the backbone of the Chinese equipment supply capability. By the end of 1957, installed capacity reached 4,900 megawatts; 1,000 megawatts of which were in hydroelectric facilities. China's electric power generating capacity for selected years is shown in Table 1.

For details on China's primary energy base, see Vaclav Smil elsewhere in this volume. Also see U.S. Congress, Committee on Energy and National Resources, Project Interdependence, U.S. and World Energy Outlook Through 1990, 1978. For other selected readings on the power industry of China, see the bibliography, appendix 1.

3 John Ashton, Development of Electric Energy Resources in Communist China, JEC 1967, p. 306. 4 FBIS, Nov. 10, 1977, E13.