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Government is their friend, and this is the main contact with them, these various associations which the Federal Government started.

We have, of course, other programs that you have mentionedhydroelectric projects to a small degree, road building, and so onbut the ones that have the real allegiance of the people are the other things that I mentioned.

Mr. NOLTING. Mostly in the field of agriculture?

Senator FULBRIGHT. Yes.

Mr. NOLTING. Yes.

Senator FULBRIGHT. In the field of business, the old RFC and the present SBA have a very strong support among the smaller business people. It has done a lot of good down there, and the people believe they have had their treatment from this type of assistance. As I say, this has not involved enormous amounts of money. It is more management and direction and education on how to help themselves.

I regret to hear you say you fear we are going to be involved there for an indefinite period. I am not saying I object, nor shall I disagree with you, but if that is so, then I think you have to look to these other things to improve the situation.

It is hard for me to believe this guerrilla warfare from the north can be successful if the people really feel they have a stake in their own government. If they don't have a stake and don't care who it is, why, then the guerrillas would thrive I would think.

Mr. NOLTING. I couldn't agree with you more. I agree with you completely on it.

ATTACKS ON UNITED STATES IN SAIGON PRESS

Senator FULBRIGHT. One other question. I don't want to delay this; it is getting late. I understand there were recently some strong attacks against us in the Saigon press, is that true?

Mr. NOLTING. Yes.

Senator FULBRIGHT. What inspired those?

Mr. NOLTING. There were the negotiations which I undertook on instructions to get a better basis of cooperation so that we could move in with great confidence and with greater support.

Senator FULBRIGHT. Did the government inspire those attacks, do you think?

Mr. NOLTING. Let me say I do not know for sure, but I think one or more of the President's advisers probably did.

Senator FULBRIGHT. Probably did?

Mr. NOLTING. I went to him about them, and he said that it couldn't have happened because he had told only three people about our proposals. I said that, in my opinion, the views expressed by one of them previously closely corresponded to the line in the press, and I wished he would do something about it, and he did. It stopped.

Senator FULBRIGHT. It stopped?

Mr. NOLTING. Yes.

8 Reconstruction Finance Corporation and Small Business Administration.

Senator FULBRIGHT. Has any consideration been given to any counterattacks on Viet-Minh, either by sabotage or by sending in commando raids and so on, to try to give them some of their own medicine? Has that ever been considered?

Mr. NOLTING. Can we go off the record on this one? [Discussion off the record.]

Senator FULBRIGHT. I wish you well. I don't know of anything that I can do to help you.

Mr. NOLTING. There is a lot, Senator.

DO NOT GET DISCOURAGED

Senator FULBRIGHT. What can we do to help?

Mr. NOLTING. Keep on supporting this in the way it is going now and don't get discouraged if we don't turn the tide in 6 months. I think we can do it, but I think it is going to be long and hard, and I don't think we can afford to lose it.

Senator LAUSCHE. Senator Carlson? Senator Symington?
Senator SYMINGTON. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.

Following what Senator Fulbright was just talking about, is the situation about the same as it was about a couple of months ago when we talked out there?

Mr. NOLTING. I think it is better, Senator.

Senator SYMINGTON. In what way?

Mr. NOLTING. Because the reinforcement that we have had, the new commitments-

Senator SYMINGTON. In other words, we are doing more.

Mr. NOLTING. The President's move has bolstered this situation very much.

Senator SYMINGTON. In your house I met the general who later I heard was a very important fellow there.

Mr. NOLTING. Minh,9 the fellow with only one tooth?

Senator SYMINGTON. That is right, only one tooth.

Mr. NOLTING. The Japanese pulled them all out.
Senator SYMINGTON. In torture, was that?

Mr. NOLTING. Yes.

Senator SYMINGTON. Are they getting more of a say in the military?

Mr. NOLTING. I can't say that he is. We are working on it. He says he isn't. The President says he has complete authority, but won't exercise it. We are in that bind at the moment.

Senator SYMINGTON. How is Mr. Gardiner, getting along?

Mr. NOLTING. He is getting along fine. He was to be back here with me, but Mr. Hamilton went out there.

Senator SYMINGTON. Are you going to see Mr. Hamilton when he is there?

Mr. NOLTING. Unfortunately not. He is leaving Saigon before I get there.

Gen. Duong Van Minh, who later led the coup that overthrew Ngo Dinh Diem.

LAOS LOOKS BAD

Senator SYMINGTON. I still feel that you have to hold this place, but Laos looks very bad, doesn't it, being frank about it, this troika business?

Mr. NOLTING. They are going to meet again in Geneva; that is all I can say.

Senator SYMINGTON. I know where they are going to meet.

Mr. NOLTING. One step at a time is enough for me.

Senator SYMINGTON. But that situation is not getting any better, is it?

Mr. NOLTING. It doesn't seem to be getting any better, no.

Senator SYMINGTON. That is going to have a tremendous effect on your situation, isn't it?

Mr. NOLTING. It has a great effect, yes. It is next door.

INFILTRATION FROM CAMBODIA

Senator SYMINGTON. I am only trying to find out. Now, Cambodia: When I was there, Thailand was very upset at Cambodia. Cambodia is where the people are infiltrating in the south, is it not? Mr. NOLTING. I don't think there is much new infiltration from Cambodia. What is happening is that the Viet Cong units in the south sort of use the Cambodian frontier as a line to go across when they are hard pressed, and then they come back again. Senator LAUSCHE. Back into what?

Mr. NoLTING. Into South Vietnam.

Senator SYMINGTON. They attack, as I understand it, below Saigon, and then they go into Cambodia. They are protected when they go into Cambodia, is that right?

Mr. NOLTING. I don't think they are protected; I think the Cambodians just haven't got any forces to do anything about it or don't know where they are. They would like to run them out if they could.

Senator SYMINGTON. Then the truth of the matter is you have South Vietnam, and on the north you have Laos, and on the south you have Cambodia, and these people are moving in and out of South Vietnam almost at will in attacking South Vietnam. They are moving in and out of these two other countries, is that right? Mr. NOLTING. Yes.

Senator SYMINGTON. Do you think that is going to stop, based on what we have done there so far? Do you think they are going to be curtailed?

Senator LAUSCHE. What we have done in South Vietnam?
Senator SYMINGTON. Yes.

Mr. NOLTING. I think it can be reduced, Senator. To what extent it can be reduced, I have to wait and see. It may not be enough.

ATTACKING HANOI

Senator SYMINGTON. Then let's follow the idea that Senator Fulbright had. Suppose you did that. What I want to leave on the record is your thinking about this, because there is going to be a lot of talk about it, and is already in this country: The only real thing that you could do there from the standpoint of any positive

action as Senator Fulbright was talking about, would be to hit Hanoi, would it not?

If there ever was a place you wanted to use the fleet and the marine setup and the helicopter setup, it would be there. I can visualize that, but I can't visualize doing it in Laos. I can visualize it there. That would stop this thing once and for all one way or the other, wouldn't it?

Mr. NOLTING. It would have, in my opinion, a potent effect; yes. It has some dangers to it, as you realize.

Senator SYMINGTON. Yes. So what your testimony is, as I see itand I am just trying to be constructive, because I certainly was impressed with the work you were doing there-is that this will improve the situation, but it will not cure it. It would not help it.

At the same time you are improving it, they naturally are going to put more and more obstacles in your way. For example, I was amazed to find out the military strength of North Vietnam. I don't think one American in a million understands that-100,000 or something-how strong they are.

Therefore if you put more of your stack in on this thing, they are going to put more of their stack in, and at the same time you are going to have this kind of business that Senator Morse was referring to, so you are going to have an effort to overthrow the country inside steadily going on from many different quarters. At the same time, you are not going to definitely take care of the problem with the amount of increased military and other aid that we are putting in; isn't that a fair deduction?

TEST THE ENEMY'S DETERMINATION

Mr. NOLTING. It may turn out that way, Senator. My own feeling is that we should test out the determination of the enemy to take this place by the means that we are now using. If this does not deter him, if this does not make him decide that the price is too high, then we will have to seek other means.

Senator SYMINGTON. How long do you think it would be that we would have to test that out?

Mr. NOLTING. I would think 6 months.

Senator SYMINGTON. In 6 months. So in 6 months we will know whether we have to have a more major operation or get out, but that in any case what we are doing will not work. Is that right, roughly, as you see it?

Mr. NOLTING. I think roughly within 6 months we ought to be able to see a trend on this which will give us further guidance.

Senator SYMINGTON. One final approach to the problem. If we lose South Vietnam, do you think we could hold Burma and Thailand and our friends, or that anybody else could hold them indefinitely?

[Discussion off the record.]

Senator SYMINGTON. Within 6 months you feel we will have much more of a feel of it?

Mr. NOLTING. I would hate to be pinned down on the date, Senator.

Senator SYMINGTON. I understand. This record is never published.

Mr. NOLTING. Of course. My rough feeling is that we ought to have a good reading on this in 6 months, with our increased help, what the enemy's response to that is; whether he is beginning to lay off or he is stepping it up.

MURDER OF COLONEL LAM

Senator SYMINGTON. One final question. Did they ever find out who murdered Colonel Lam? That happened out there.

Mr. NOLTING. Yes, sir. The evidence on this has been presented to the ICC. It is undoubtedly Viet Cong, and it is being investigated by the International Control Commission now.

Senator SYMINGTON. I see. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.

VIET CONG STRENGTH

Senator LAUSCHE. I have a few questions. Can you give the estimated strength of the Viet Cong forces in South Vietnam?

Mr. NOLTING. In the regular armed forces of the Viet Cong in South Vietnam there are estimated to be between 18,000 and 20,000.

Senator LAUSCHE. Has it been increasing in number as time goes

on?

Mr. NOLTING. Very considerably, yes.

Senator LAUSCHE. Are they scattered, in the main?

Mr. NOLTING. They are scattered. Their largest organized units are in battalion strength, around 400 to 500.

Senator LAUSCHE. Approximately what proportion of the Viet Cong strength is recruited from among Vietnamese peasants?

Mr. NOLTING. It is awfully hard to say, but my guess is that it is a high percentage, perhaps as high as 75 percent.

Senator LAUSCHE. Of the peasants? That is, of their 20,000 there are 75 percent that are from the peasant stock?

Mr. NOLTING. This is very much of a guess, but I have thought a lot about this and tried to come up with a figure. Do you think that is high?

Mr. CATTREEL. I think there is a little confusion here. The 20,000 are hardcore infiltrees from the north, but around this hardcore they develop their peasant armies, and I think you are talking about the total number of the Viet Cong effort in South Vietnam amounts to 70 percent of them that are peasants, which are pressed into service through the various methods of coercion applied by the Viet Cong.

They are kidnapped from their villages, told that if they don't join the Viet Cong army, their father and mother will be murdered. These confessions have come out in a number of cases, which indicate that a very high percentage are pressed into the total effort from the peasantry in South Vietnam.

PEASANTS ARE ANTI-COMMUNIST

Senator LAUSCHE. What would you believe to be the general attitude of the peasant, on the whole, with respect to the incumbent government and the efforts of the Communists?

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