1985

Industrial growth of 10 percent would require a power capacity in 1985 of 108,000 megawatts or nearly 2.7 times 1977's generating capacity. The increment to capacity in 1985 of 12,700 megawatts is perhaps even more imposing.39 This would appear to require a major expansion of power generating equipment manufacturing plant. And it would also require a sustained program of significant imports of foreign plant and equipment, possibly as much as 2,500-3,000 megawatts annually calling for mínimal annual outlay of at least $300 million.

At a 10 percent industrial growth rate, Table 7 projects a need in the year 2000 for a generating capacity of 673,000 megawatts. This is less than 50 percent of one estimate of U.S. generating capacity for the same year and reduces the Chinese goal of overtaking the United States economically to an exhortatory call for action.40

Assessment

To achieve the four modernizations, the Chinese under the leadership of Chairman Hua and Vice Premier Teng Hsiao-ping plan to achieve at least an annual 10-percent increase in industrial growth by 1980 and sustain it through 1985 and possibly beyond. Given the 8.5-percent and 9.8-percent increases in power generating capacity in 1976 and 1977 and the lead time required to install new capacity, it would appear difficult to accelerate developments to the required 13-percent level prior to 1980. This is one reason why Chairman Hua's directives of late 1977 place such heavy emphasis on conservation and allocation of electric power.

Key features of the effort to increase capacity and power production will have to include:

(a) Heavy investment in the development of the coal industry to forestall more thermal plants from being converted from coal to oil firing. This will help maximize the availability of oil for export earnings;

(b) Improvement in rail transport to eliminate bottlenecks in coal deliveries and the development of coal-fired, mine-mouth type thermal plants to ease the burden on the rail system. Increased use must be made of locally available low grade coals to reduce the long haul of higher grade coals;

(c) Commencement of major hydroelectric developments in the 1,000 MW and greater capacity. This means development of new dams in the main gorges of the Yangtze above Ichang. The first Yangtze River hydroelectric station is under construction now;

(d) Reduction in construction time for both hydro and thermal station projects. The 15-16 years spent on Liuchia and Tanchiangkou should be reduced to perhaps 8 years;

(e) Development of 500 kV transmission lines to serve centers of consumption far from remote hydro sites. Greater interconnection of grids to provide security for the power supply is essential;

This is greater than the 11,900 megawatts of capacity the Soviet Union plans to add in 1978.

40 Federal Power Commission projects 817,000 megawatts for the United States for Dec. 31, 1986. The period 1987-2000 for the United States was taken at a growth rate of 4.5 percent annually.

(f) Large thermal stations and units. Work currently underway on 600 boilers and turbo-generators will have to be accelerated;

(g) The import of complete one- and two-unit thermal stations in the 600 and 1,200 MW class; and

(h) Expansion of the power equipment manufacturing capability. With their relatively abundant hydraulic resources and reserves of oil and coal, the PRC need not be driven into a rapid nuclear power program. Nevertheless, it seems likely that the Chinese will soon construct or contract for one or more nuclear stations if only to keep up with technological developments. It would also make sense for the Chinese to enter into a technical assistance agreement for the manufacture of gas turbines of 25 MW and higher for both peak shaving and base load service. And while China's self-reliant stance might prevent such a contract, the Chinese would probably benefit greatly from obtaining consultative advice from abroad on numerous aspects of power industry operations.

What is not so evident in the above quantitative analysis of what China may require by 1985 are the changing technological characteristics of the capacity to be added. A major portion of the new capacity will be larger and more complex. Technological problems will require solution as higher operating temperatures and pressures are encountered, as improved process control and environmental equipment are required, and as the plant and equipment size scale-up continues to affect new design in all areas of power generation, transmission, and distribution. These qualitative aspects of the incremental capacity required add another dimension to the problems facing the Chinese electric power industry. Nevertheless, if all or most of the problems facing the electric power industry are solved, the industry probably could support an industrial growth rate of 10 percent for a sustained period commencing about 1981.

APPENDIX 1. BIBLIOGRAPHY

Wu Yuan-li, Economic Development and the Use of Energy Resources in Communist China, Praeger, 1963. 275 pp.

Robert Carin, Power Industry in Communist China, Union Research Institute, Hong Kong, 1969. 63 pp.

John Ashton, Development of Electric Energy Resources in Communist China, Joint Economic Committee Report, An Economic Profile of Mainland China, U.S. Government Printing Office, 1967. pp. 297-316.

Vaclav Smil, China's Energy Achievements, Problems, Prospects, Praeger, 1976. 246 pp.

JETRO, China's Electric Power Production, Tokyo, Jan. 1975.

Report of the Canadian Electric Power Mission to the People's Republic of China, Aug. 29-Sept. 18, 1973.

Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources in the PRC, report of the U.S. Water Resources Delegation, Aug.-Sept. 1974.

CIA, China: Energy Balance Projections, 1975.

Perkins, et al., Rural Small Scale Industry in the PRC, U. of Cal. Press, 1977, pp. 107-109.

William Clarke, China's Electric Power Industry, The China Business Review, Sept.-Oct. 1977, pp 22-37.

APPENDIX 2. POWER TRANSMISSION

Transmission lines in China are found at 66, 110, 154, and 220 kV, and at the one 330 kV circuit. Lines are generally carried on steel or reinforced concrete towers or poles. For example, the 173 mile long, 220 kV Maoming-Chiangmen line, completed in 1975, is carried on 177 steel and 597 concrete pylons; the tallest steel pylon is 184 feet, the shortest is 79 feet. Distribution lines are 6, 11, and 35 kV carried primarily on concrete poles in woodshy China. Domestic consumption is at 380 and 220 volt, 50 hertz.

Experimental work is being carried out in China on 500 kV transmission systems. The Shenyang transformer works is doing practice repairs on a 500 kV test line. There is no direct evidence of test work on high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission, but it is known that the Chinese have a strong interest in this area. A move to HVDC may be necessary if the PRC is to efficiently move large blocks of power from major hydro facilities on the upper reaches of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers to distant industrial centers.

The Chinese have done considerable work in live-wire maintenance of transmission lines, including the transformation of lines to higher voltages without interruption. The Fushin-Chinchou line in Liaoning had its capacity doubled in 1973 without interruption in the power supply.

A notable Chinese achievement is the 220 kV Yangtze River transmission line crossing at Nanking. The south channel crossing is on towers 635 feet high spanning 6340 feet, the longest span and tallest transmission towers in China. The towers are constructed of steel tubing with prestressed cross arms. Transmission cable is composed of 19 high-strength steel wires and 38 aluminum-covered steel wires. Construction of the crossing, which connects the Nanking thermal station north of the river with the city to the south, was begun in May 1974 and completed in September 1976.

APPENDIX 3. POWER CAPACITY AND GENERATION (1976–1977)

In 1976, the Chinese published information about turbo-generator units totalling about 2000 MW of capacity, including the following units that were installed; 300 MW-Wangting; 200 MW-Hsinten, Chaoyang, and two at Huantai; 125 MW-Huainan, Hsintushan, and Laiwu; 100 MW-Wulashan and Hsinhua; 75 MW-Ansha, Pikou, and Kungtsui; and several others that are less certain. This does not include the contribution to capacity made by new units at thermal and hydro plants in the 1 to 29 MW range nor does it include the capacity from approximately 5000 small hydros added (at an average of 50 kW per hydro, this would yield an additional 250 MW of capacity). There is also probably some unknown residual that was not announced.

It is not clear what damage the political turmoil did to the construction effort in the power industry in 1976. Certainly the July earthquake impacted heavily on the construction of the new 750 MW Japanese-supplied power plant in Tangshan and possibly on the 640 MW Italian-supplied thermal station at Tientsin. No information is available on whether the French and Swiss-supplied, 300 MW coal-fired station became operable in 1976 as originally scheduled. The assumption is that none of these foreign-supplied plants contributed to capacity in 1976. But given the four 200 MW units imported from the Soviet Union in 1975 and 1976 and the possible addition of another Chinese-built 300 MW unit, it seems reasonable to postulate that around 2900 MW of turbo-generating capacity were added in 1976. This represents a growth in capacity of about 8.5 percent. For 1977, about 1950 MW of additional capacity was announced, including the following units: 300 MW-Wangting; 200 MW-Hsintien and Chaoyang; 125 MW-Taoho (2), Huaipei, and Huainan; 100 MW-Matou (3) and Chingshan; 75 MW-Pikou and Kungtsui; 50 MW-Panshan, Tienchiao, and Yungan; 30 MW-Mashek; and several others that are less certain. The same situation as in 1976 applies to the medium sized plant additions, the Soviet generators, possibly an unannounced 300 M6 unit, and to the estimated 5000 small hydros added.

In mid-year pledges, the Peking Electricity Administration undertook to add 800 MW of generating capacity in 1977 and the Shensi and Shantung power authorities to add 500 MW of capacity. At the end of the year, it was announced that 465 MW of a planned 765 MW became operative in the Peking-TientsinTangshan triangle, including two units at the Taoho station in Tangshan. Of the 500 MW, 250 represents new units, not otherwise announced.

It is also known that a total of forty large and medium size units became operational in 1977 leading to Peking's New Year's Day statement that a "considerably greater generating capacity than those built in 1976 were put into operation." No allowance is made for the Italian or French/Swiss-supplied thermal stations whose construction has likely been delayed. This suggests the addition of 3600 MW and a growth in generating capacity in 1977 of about 9.8 percent over 1976. The power generated by the installed capacity in 1976 and 1977 is derived from estimates of the number of hours the mid-year capacity is operated annually. Ordinarily in the face of a power shortage, this figure would be expected to rise, however, if an above average share of capacity is already in base load service, as appears to be the case in the PRC, then this places a limit on how much more the capacity could be operated safely. The amount of planned maintenance and unexpected outages is another factor for which little information exists. In the face of no industrial growth, the rate might remain rather static. Political turmoil as occurred in 1976 might cause interruptions in power service although there is no information this actually took place as it did in other industries. Interruptions in the supply of coal, which did take place, could cause fossil-fueled thermal stations to curtail operations, however. Drought and irrigation requirements can impact rather heavily on hydroelectric operations and in China, with around 38 percent of all capacity in hydro units, this is a significant factor often causing reduced hours of operation. Natural disasters as at Tangshan also cause interruptions.

In 1977, there was a sharp rise in industrial output requiring more power and there was some improvement in worker morale and plant discipline contributing to more efficient operation. Little is known, however, of the industrial operations of heavy power consumers such as aluminum and nuclear weapons manufacture. The power shortage persisted and the question remains whether the generating capacity already heavily engaged in base load service could be much more extensively operated. Given these circumstances and in comparisons with operations in other developing and developed countries, it is believed that 3,500 hours of operation annually in 1976 and 3,525 hours in 1977 are reasonable (the extra 25 hours added to reflect increased efficiency). The 3,500 hour figure is a composite rate based on 2,000 hours for small hydros, 3,000 hours for large hydros and 4,000 hours for thermal stations. These yield power outputs of 124 billion kilowatt-hours in 1976 and 136 billion kilowatt-hours in 1977.

The reader should be impressed by the tenuous nature of these estimates. APPENDIX 4. THE HYDROELECTRIC AND THERMAL POWER PLANTS OF 30 MW AND HIGHER 41

Anhwei

1. Chentsun HES 150 MW-A three unit hydro on the Chingi River in Chiu County started in 1958, restarted in 1968, and completed in 1975. Chentsun serves the East grid.

2. Foutzuling HES 31 MW-A small hydro on the Pi River near Hoshan. 3. Hofei 68 MW-A 50 MW turbo-generator went into operation here in 1972 to supplement two old and small units. Supplies power to the AnhweiKiangsu regional grid.

4. Hsianghungtien HES 40 MW-On the Pi River near Tushan.

5. Hsiangwangchengtzu 100 MW-Located in the north end of the province, two 50 MW turbo-generators were installed here in 1973.

6. Huainan 306 MW-Several stations in a power complex serving the AnhweiKiangsu grid. A 125 MW unit, the largest in Anhwei, went into operation in 1976 and another of the same on line in 1977 at this "mine-mouth station." 7. Huaipei 225 MW-The first phase of construction brought two 50 MW units into operation in 1973 at this "mine-mouth plant." The second phase saw a 125 MW unit installed in 1977 and another unit under construction. By the end of 1978 capacity should be 350 MW.

8. Linhuaikang 30-50 MW-Located in the suburbs of Hofei, the actual size of this station is uncertain.

9. Maanshan 48 MW-Has four 12 MW generators.

10. Maochienshan HES 30 MW-On the Wan River in Yuehsi Countu, Anching Prefecture.

11. Meishan HES 40 MW-On the Shih River in Luan Prefecture, Meishan has four 10 MW turbo-generators.

HES is hydroelectric station, otherwise facility is a thermal power plant. Capacities shown are those known or estimated as of December 31, 1977. Under construction (u.c.)

12. Ssuhoshan 50-75 MW-In the city of Wuhu serving the Anhwei-Kiangsu grid.

Chekiang

13. Chililung HES 420 MW-A low head hydro on the Fuchun River near Tonglu with six units at 50 MW and two at 60 MW.

14. Chakou 30-50 MW-Sometimes referred to as Hangchow Plant No. 1.

15. Fuchun HES 180 MW-A low head hydro on the Chientang River, a tributary of the Fuchun. Has three turbo-generators at 60 MW each.

16. Hsinan HES 652.5 MW-A main station in the East grid located on the Hsinan River. Nine units at 72.5 MW a piece.

17. Huangtankou HES 30 MW-A small, 4-unit hydro on the Wuchi River. 18. Meichi HES 60 MW-South of Tai Lake. A fifth 12 MW unit became operative in 1975.

19. Panshan 100 MW-A second 50 MW generator went into operation here in late 1977. It is assumed that there are two at this, the second power plant in Hangchow.

Fukien

20. Ansha HES 115 MW-On the Chiulung River in Sanming Prefecture. Has three units, two at 20 MW and one at 75 MW.

21. Kutien HES 158 MW-A cascade system of four dams with a fifth planned. Kutien No. 1 has six generators totaling 62 MW while Kutien No. 2`and No. 4 are believed to have a generating capacity of 32 MW each.

22. Putien HES 30 MW-Hydro is probably larger than 30 MW serving Foochow via new 220 kV line.

23. Sanming 35-50 MW-Provides power to a 220 kV transmission system. 24. Yungan 50 MW-The first stage expansion completed in 1975 saw the addition of two units of 25 MW each. The second stage, being rushed to completion at the end of 1977, will add two units at 50 MW apiece making Yungan the largest thermal station in Fukien at more than 150 MW.

Heilungkiang

25. Chiamussu 100 MW-Serves nearby coal mines and the city of Chiamussu. The 100 MW unit is undergoing improvements.

26. Chihsi 87 MW-Probably has three units at 50, 25, and 12 MW.

27. Chingpo HES 36 MW—A small hydro on the Mutan River in Ningan County being expanded to 144 MW by the addition of three 36 MW units.

28. Fulaerhchi 125 MW-Modifications in 1976 to permit highest boiler operating temperatures in China allowed a 23 percent boost in generating capacity.

29. Harbin 73 MW-One of two power plants in Harbin.

30. Harbin Heat and Power 200 MW-Has two generating units of 100 MW each. The second became operational in 1976.

31. Hsinhua 150 MW-A new facility with a 100 MW turbo-generator becoming operative by 1976. A 50 MW unit went into operation in 1973. Location uncertain.

32. Peian 36 MW-A 12 MW generator installed here in 1977 assumed to be the third.

33. Taching No. 1 35-50 MW-An old power station at Anta now assumed to be Taching No. 1.

34. Taching No. 2 100 MW-A new station to supply expanded refining and petrochemical operations. Two units became operative in 1973.

Honan

35. Anyang 50-100 MW-Started during the Cultural Revolution. 36. Chengchou 100 MW-In the city of Chengchou.

37. Hsinhsiang 42.5 MW-In Hsinhsiang city. Has small units with the largest 25 MW. May have been expanded.

38. Loyang 175 MW-Was expanded from 75 MW in 1958 to 175 MW currently. 39. Pingtingshan 250 MW-Probably a two plant complex. Originally 30 MW expanded to 250 MW with further increases in capacity likely.

40. Sanmen HES 100-150 MW-Originally a Soviet aid project later completed by the Chinese, but because of silt problems in the Yellow River, total generating capacity will be limited to 200 to 250 MW.

41. Tangho 200 MW-The largest single plant in Honan. The second of two 100 MW units became operational in April 1975, Located in Nanyang Prefec

ture.