With regard to the fact that civil officials of the Empire will get large salaries abundantly sufficient for their own wants and the support of their families there will be no harassing thoughts regarding family necessities, and all private anxieties will be removed. These officials may therefore be expected to do their duties with equable mind and free from all distractions. Funds for national measures that may be needed for the Empire may thus be provided for from the land revenues, and even then there will be an ample margin left.

The war in the Eastern portions of our Empire has already begun, and no one dare venture at the present moment to foretell which shall be the winner and which the defeated Power, or how many months, or even how many years, it will last. One thing we know about this, however, is, that the battlefields are to be within the territories of China, while our people inhabiting regions in the neighbourhood are surely in danger of suffering all kinds of the severest hardships and oppressions. Finally, when the war comes to an end, the treaty of peace entered upon by the belligerents will certainly contain clauses affecting the Eastern and Western portions of the Chinese Empire. It therefore behoves China to seize the opportunity lying before her now to use her utmost strength and best efforts to start properly various measures of vital importance to the country, so that when the time arrives when it shall be incumbent upon the Imperial Government to make a declaration, China shall be in a proper position to do so, and compel others also to listen to her wishes without any opposition. In a word, the present is the time to inaugurate measures for benefiting the country and for guarding against any contingency of harm. In urging a reasonable policy we must all the more advocate strength; desiring strength we must strive to make ourselves powerful, and to make ourselves powerful we must naturally seek for ways and means whereby we may obtain the necessary funds. So far, all sources of revenue we have in view do not show a sufficiency coupled with a margin, except it be the sole

one of reorganising the land-taxes, which when collected will be sufficient for all purposes.

Some one may argue that this proposition being one that has never been tried before, it is therefore what is nowadays styled "A New Scheme " [Reform Translator]. But for all that, its being a new scheme should not render it liable to opposition as one that ought not, for that reason, to be permitted to be put into effect. A scheme must be shown to be feasible or unfeasible, and so put into effect or shelved as the case may be. The fact of its being a new or old scheme should not be allowed to militate against it, or vice versa.

Again, on the other hand, it may be argued that one of the injunctions placed by an Imperial Ancestor upon his descendants occupying the Throne, strictly forbids in perpetuity any additions being made to the land taxes of the Empire, and therefore it would be presumption to propose such a measure. This kind of argument is, however, quite wrong. The plan proposed is not to add to the land tax, but only that there should be one uniform taxation throughout the whole Empire.

A proposition like the present earnestly seeks a tangible and practical solution of the question (of finance) and the reorganisation suggested is one that is needed to meet the exigencies of the times. Moreover, the method of reorganisation proposed is both simple and easy to put into effect. It only requires diligence and honesty of purpose in undertaking this duty, in which case the people of the Empire will be certain to fall in with the plan with glad and willing hearts, while officials naturally will use their best efforts to put the scheme through.

When the Imperial consideration has been given, it will be necessary to go into the matter with care and detail, in order to decide whether to inaugurate the scheme or to abandon it. The moment, however, it has been decided to start it, and due notice has been given to those in Peking as well as in the provinces, then no one shall be allowed to obstruct the scheme by trying to persuade their Majesties

to rescind their consent, no who shall attempt to do so. be made, there is no reason why the person's word should be listened to by their Majesties. With reference to

matter who the person may be Even should such an attempt

suggestions, that may be made by anyone, it is only needful to consider whether such suggestions meet the exigencies of the crisis; it is unnecessary to discuss their merits on the basis of who the person may be who has made the suggestions in question.

With regard to this reorganisation of the land tax it will be necessary first to report upon the number of square li of a place, next the number of mow of land therein, and then the tax levied. If the report is substantially correct, then will be the time to consider how to reorganise the old system, to see whether the new plan will be lighter and easier of manipulation and also that it will not cause trouble and inconvenience to the people.

If the new plan meets the above requirements, then the amount of tax to be levied shall be considered. After all this has been done, and due examination made as to whether the new tax shall be sufficient for the purposes in view, and it has been found to be practical and feasible, then will be the time to decide about putting the new scheme into effect. My opinion is that if the foregoing scheme can be put into execution, the revenues of China will certainly increase from year to year, while it will follow that the power and strength of China will be greater and greater year after year. I, indeed, stand looking eagerly forward to the accomplishment of all these things.

[Note. The above recommendations of Sir Robert Hart have been sent to the various Viceroys and Governors of provinces to be reported upon.-TRANSLATOR.]

1 M. A FORECAST OF THE COURSE OF THE WAR, WRITTEN BEFORE PEACE WAS SIGNED.

I. THE MILITARY ASPECT.

The dispersal of Kuropatkin's grand army and its retirement towards the north places the Japanese commanders on their true line of advance, the march on the great Sungari wheat plains in which Harbin is placed. But although Kaiyüan was reached on the 20th March it is well to remember that this town is upwards of 400 versts, or nearly 300 miles, from Harbin by the railway route, and that each step will have to be made very carefully by the Japanese as they progress farther and farther into central Manchuria. The town of Kaiyuan, twenty-five miles north of Tiehling and sixtyfive beyond Moukden, has been rapidly seized for the specific object of effectively masking the great base for the onward march. That great base will undoubtedly be Tiehling, for the following reasons.

Tiehling marks the highest navigable point on the river Liao, and is approximately one hundred and eighty miles from the treaty port of Newchwang. The 20,000 junks which crowd this important inland waterway during the open season (April to November) bring down enormous quantities of raw produce and carry back to a somewhat lesser extent imports of European and American origin. These junks will be ready to play the part of an auxiliary supply service to the main Japanese armies, and will transport the tens of thousands of tons of military stores collected at Newchwang. In 1900 the Japanese were the first to organise properly a junk supply-service from Tongku and Tientsien up to Tungchow on the Pei-ho when the Peking relief force marched on the capital of China. In

1 Publisher's Note.-The following pages, written under the impression that the war would be one of exhaustion, contain too much valuable information to be suppressed.

such matters history always repeats itself; and in passing it may be well to point out that by the capture of Tiehling the Japanese have not only secured an important line of communications, but have in addition insured that the enormous quantities of beans and bean-cakes necessary for Japan will be this year available.

Again, Tiehling is 449 versts, or say 300 miles, by rail from Dalny, the second great landing point for Japanese military stores and material; and from Dalny munitions of war can be transported in twenty-four hours, whilst slowmoving food supplies can take the water route. Then the military railway, running from Antung to Liaoyang, is now completed, bringing the Yalu estuary within 240 miles of Tiehling by rail. Finally, it is not unwise to suppose that the railway belonging to the Northern Chinese Railways, which has its present terminus at Hsinmingtun, together with a Chinese cart service of some thousand carts, will enable many thousands of tons of military stores to be transported monthly from this railhead to the advanced base.

With four lines of supply available, Tiehling is the natural base for the Japanese armies advancing into Central Manchuria, and by the middle of 1905 a grand advance will be directed from this point.

Parallel to this main advance, what it will be well to call the Japanese Eastern Manchurian armies will be in the field. Working north from Hsengking, eighty miles by road to the east of Moukden, these light armies, suitably equipped for mountain and hill-work, may be counted on to move on parallel roads with the main armies into Kirin province. The natural line of advance of their eastern forces is on the Hailung-ch'eng districts, one hundred miles to the north-east of Tiehling and about seventy miles due east of the Manchurian railway. Curiously enough they will find these Hailung-ch'eng valleys thickly peopled with Chinese settlers owing to their war with China ten years. ago. In 1894 and 1895 great numbers of Chinese were driven north out of the Liaotung peninsula owing to the