網頁圖片
PDF
ePub 版

striven-and with some success-to monopolise the task of solving the Central Asian Question. By pushing their advanced posts from Krasnovodsk and Chikishlar forward to Kizil Arvat, and by fortifying that place, Lomakine secured the head of the road to Sarakhs, which, as far as Abiverd at the least, is outside the Persian border line. By carrying on this forward movement Russia may expect to find that she has secured possession of a large portion of the best road to India, and one which will also give her a hold upon Merv and the country of the Tekes. But the most important point is that it places an object before a Russian army which in numbers, efficiency, and position is immeasurably the superior of the Turkestan and Orenburg armies combined. We may now look forward to increased activity on the part of Russia through the emulation that will be caused between the authorities of Tiflis and Tashkent.

The conquest of India had come to be considered the perquisite of that army which had over-run Central Asia, and had carried the terror of the White Czar's name to the sources of the Oxus and the Jaxartes. The Persian phase of the question was, and is, distasteful to the generals at Tashkent; for in the Persian enterprise their share can only be secondary. It is because these facts were well appreciated that such energetic efforts have been made to find new roads to India across the Pamir, and to make the most of the passes which lead through the Hindoo Koosh to Cabul. In Tashkent, the favourite Indian conquerer of the

past is Baber; in Tiflis, Nadir Shah and his numerous predecessors are quoted as the unanswerable authorities. In this rivalry the chances are mostly on the side of the Tiflis Government, and since the conquest of the Armenian fortresses those chances have still further increased.

It is difficult to persuade oneself that Kaufmann, that vain and meretricious ruler, will consent to forego the grand dream of his existence, and retire from a career which requires but a little further scope to bring upon him a war with England. It needs little judgment to perceive that Russia's national tendency is to absorb northern Persia, and to make the Caspian geographically the Russian lake which it practically is at present. We must judge of each of these movements by its practicability - Kaufmann absorbing Afghan Turkestan, and the Grand Duke Michael Azerbijan, Ghilan, or Mazanderan; and, while remembering that upon neither could England look with anything but the utmost disfavour, it must be admitted that it would be a much easier task to drive Russia across the Oxus than to oust her from Persian provinces so remote from us as those specified.

In Kaufmann's path there, therefore, stands the grand obstacle of England's watchfulness. He can scarcely make a forward movement in any direction without encountering the opposition of this country. An advance on Merv from Charjui would assuredly be the prelude to a war that would rage within twelve months of the arrival of Russian troops at that place, and of English at Herat-the unavoidable and only

reply to a Russian occupation of the Turcoman stronghold.

In Kara Kum, and even in Persia-despite the treaties-there is no such check on Russian impulse; and it would be difficult for anyone to define the point when encroachments on the Persian frontier would, in the eyes of the vast mass of the English people, constitute a just casus belli. And even if a war for the defence of Persia's integrity were decided upon, it is greatly to be feared that it would not be sanctioned because it was recognised that national interests of the highest importance were at stake. We have clearly to keep before us the fact that there is danger to India from Russia in two quarters; and that in many respects that from Persia is the more formidable. It is also in the present age the less recognised. Up to a certain point-in fact, up to the occupation of Meshed or Sarakhs, if Russia plays her cards with any of that astuteness with which she has been credited-it would be almost impossible to arrest the progress of Russia's army, and the very gravity of the danger in this quarter is its insidiousness.

Russia's military strength in Central Asia is limited and in an undeveloped stage. But there can be no doubt that it exists, and that for the accomplishment of any ordinary enterprise it would suffice. In the direction of the Caspian, where the army of the Caucasus-behind which stands the European army-can be called into play, it is formidable; and if ever India is to be wrested from England by external force, it will be from this direction that the attack will be

made. But there is need to be on our guard against the movements of Kaufmann as well, although the Turkestan army is much too weak and unprepared to attempt the invasion of India. The vanity of that general-his ignorance is perhaps more dangerous than the knowledge of wiser men-will impel him to vie with Lomakine in expeditions against the Turcomans either from Charjui or Khiva. And for such operations he possesses the resources and the necessary strength. The efficiency of these armies may also increase every year, and the degree of offensive power they possess depends almost exclusively on the lines of communication that exist between Central Asia and Europe. At present these are almost as bad as they can be; but in a few years they will be better. Once they have been perfected, Russia's military strength will be most formidable. The certainty of that prospect carries a moral with it, which shall be considered later on, and with regard to which an unhesitating opinion must be expressed.

119

CHAPTER V.

THE PRINCIPAL ROUTES FROM THE RUSSIAN FRONTIER TO INDIA.

Ox no point is it more necessary that clear views should obtain in this country than upon the nature of the region which lies between the English and Russian frontiers, more particularly of the territory which extends north of the Hindoo Koosh to the Aral, and the ranges of mountains known as Zarafshan and Alai Tau. Various books contain the necessary information with regard to different points, but even these have invariably placed the information in the Appendix; and Appendices, however useful, are not read or studied as carefully as they should be. Although the necessary data lie at the disposal of any inquirer who will take the trouble to seek for them in some score of books of travel,* and innumerable official reports, it is very few who will have either the inclination or the opportunity of making the necessary research.

* No book of travels is so valuable in this respect as Captain Burnaby's "Ride to Khiva."

« 上一頁繼續 »