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Housewife

Priest, minister, monk

This, of course, does not imply that each category requires distinct and definitive media programing. However, based on the importance of the group or subgroup in the particular operational environment, a PSYOP program manager could decide to develop a special pamphlet, magazine article, radio program, or cultural drama team performance directed to any one of the hundreds of possible target categories.

Guidelines for the selection of PSYOP targets are based on several practical considerations: first, the importance of the target to the PSYOP mission. For example, a small rural minority group located in a remote and nonsensitive part of the country would be of little importance to PSYOP programs. On the other hand, a small but highly organized religious order, with its members strategically located throughout the country, could be of great use to PSYOP programs as key or influential communicators. In a similar way, a small minority group that occupies a strategic border area could be an important PSYOP target. Certainly, the PSYOP program manager and planner must understand their significance, as key communicators or important targets, and should direct appropriate communication to affect or restructure their attitudes.

The second guideline for target selection is based on the probability of attitude change. It was stated above that attitudes within a given group could vary from fanatically hostile to extremely friendly. Because it is generally recognized that PSYOP programs (especially mass media) will have little influence on fanatics, intelligence is needed to insure that the major PSYOP effort is directed to typical segments of the population. The atypical person or fanatic could be considered as a secondary or tertiary PSYOP target. For example, Henry V. Dicks, who was a leading PSYOP analyst during World War II, established the following five categories of response to Nazism among German males of military age: 1. Fanatical "hardcore" Nazis (10 percent)

2. Modified Nazis "with reservations" (25 percent)

3. Unpolitical Germans (40 percent)

4. Passive anti-Nazis (15 percent), and

5. Active anti-Nazis (10 percent) 3

From the above analysis, it appears that a majority of the German soldiers were politically neutral. No doubt this information was valuable to the PSYWAR planners and media programmers in that it provided the basis for the tone of political messages.

Beliefs, Opinions, Motivations, and Attitudes of Key Audiences as Individuals and

Groups

If attitudes are to be restructured, reinforced, or neutralized, the first essential is to establish a baseline from which to provide an accurate assessment of current attitudes toward significant political, military, economic, and social subjects. The requirement is for more than hunches

or gossip. Hard scientific evidence about the reality of social situations is needed.

PSYOP is concerned with people's attitudes toward a variety of subjects: political ideologies; the enemy as a military force, as administrators, or as compatriots; and the friendly government, its bureaucracy, military forces, and aid. Also, it is important to understand the attitudes of particular age groups, social strata, and occupational groups. This information is needed for the development of a realistic communication strategy for specific PSYOP targets. As stated, important, significant, and typical audience samples should be used in assessing attitudes. There is considerable danger in assuming that the attitudes of one or two high-ranking defectors or several friendly civilians are typical.

Analysis of Current Vulnerabilities of Specific Audiences Within the Society An analysis of current dissensions, fears, anxieties, complaints, and "gripes" within a selected target audience is vital in order to determine PSYOP vulnerabilities. Accurate and current evidence is needed about real or imagined complaints dealing with political, social, economic, or military subjects. Obviously, it is important that the complaints be typical ones.

Examples of fears and anxieties on the part of military PSYOP targets could be:

1. Close surveillance by comrades

2. Fear of punishment or reprisal against an individual's family
3. Fear of mistreatment, killings, or torturing of prisoners by the
incumbent military forces

4. Fear of air and artillery bombardment

5. Anxiety over aerial surveillance

When assessed realistically and taken advantage of intelligently, many of the fears and anxieties mentioned above can be exploited as target vulnerabilities for PSYOP programs. The problem then becomes one of identifying them so that they can be exploited.

PSYOP vulnerabilities can be of long duration or of relatively recent origin. For example, a group can develop deep animosity, based on religious or racial prejudice toward another group. If the communicator adequately understands the nature of the animosity, it can be used for PSYOP exploitation. In this respect, the Viet Cong in their propaganda still equate the presence of U.S. forces in Vietnam with the colonial French forces, knowing, of course, that the majority of the people have a strong animosity toward both the French and colonialism.

PSYOP vulnerabilities are dynamic, and thus able to be reinforced or changed. By way of illustration, on August 8, 1968, the U.S. Ninth Infantry Division, reacting to a VC ambush, fired on the friendly hamlet of Yen Thuong, killing several innocent civilians. This incident made the people in the area extremely susceptible to anti-U.S. PSYOP. For example, rumors spread by the VC agents stressed that:

The Americans fired without provocation.

The Americans can't tell the difference between enemy and friendly, and open fire on all people in black pajamas. In this respect they are no better than the French.

The hamlet was caught in a crossfire in a fight between the Army of the Republic of Vietnam (ARVN) and U.S. forces.

The American helicopters "callously" opened fire on the hamlet.

Typical thoughts and attitudes of the villagers were:

The Americans are just like the VC-kill innocent people.

The GVN should order the Americans to stop undisciplined firing because too many people get killed. They (the Americans) are just like the French. We used to think that the Americans came to help us (didn't they build schools and dispensaries?) but now the Americans show how they really feel toward the people.

The next morning (August 9) an ARVN political warfare team explained to the people of Yen Thuong and others in the general area that the Americans reacted to a VC ambush. They emphasized that, had the people informed or reported the VC activity, the tragedy surely would have been avoided. This message was also carried by the Vietnamese Information Service (VIS) to district towns and markets. This, plus the active concern of the government of Vietnam, the prompt medical attention given to the wounded, and the distribution of commodities and prompt indemnity payments by the Ninth Division tended to "cool" the situation and thus reduce this PSYOP vulnerability.

Determination of Message Content and the Most Effective Communication

Channels

Writing about PSYOP during World War II, Daniel Lerner makes the significant point that the development of PSYOP themes (message content) is the one most crucial element in the PSYOP process. He also notes that this is the point at which the considerations of policy, intelligence, and the target are brought to bear upon the use of available media and channels of communication. Once there is a clear understanding of attitudes and PSYOP vulnerabilities for definitive targets, and with the knowledge of policy guidelines, there is nothing difficult or magical about the selection of thematic content for PSYOP messages. Of course, without an understanding of current attitudes, motivation, and actual vulnerabilities of specific issues, thematic content could be very mysterious.

It is apparent that content for PSYOP messages must meet a triple test: first, it must be consonant with PSYOP policy guidance; next, it should support one or more significant objectives as stated in the PSYOP plan; and, finally, it should be based on as accurate an assessment of vulnerabilities as can be determined by scientific analysis and evaluation of target information.

It is obvious that PSYOP messages should be programed over communication channels that are readily available to the audience. It is a wasted effort to prepare extensive and varied radio programs for groups

in areas not possessing radio receivers, or to develop large quantities of printed matter for an illiterate audience. Deciding on the most effective communication channel or channels to reach a PSYOP target is an important and critical step in the planning of PSYOP programs. There is no doubt that, in many environments, PSYOP is more than a loudspeaker and leaflet operation, and all available communication channels should be considered as PSYOP options.

The first requirement, therefore, is for a scientific analysis of current communication patterns for the target(s). Some of the questions are: (a) What channels are open? (b) What media are credible? (c) What media are most appropriate to the thematic content? (d) What channels are capable of reacting to appropriate time and space requirements? It should be made clear that a considerable amount of current data is required to adequately understand the various communication channels and the pattern of communication for PSYOP targets.

Measuring the Effect of PSYOP Communications

In evaluating the effect of communication programs, consideration should be given to whether the concern is for the short term, long term, or institutional (very long term) effect. As stated previously, if PSYOP programs are to be accurately measured, information is required from many PSYOP sources. Also, measurement requires the use of a variety of techniques, depending, of course, on the location, importance, and size of the PSYOP audience. Specific data-gathering techniques for determining the impact or the effect of PSYOP communication will be discussed in subsequent paragraphs.

Measurement can be quantitative, qualitative, or textual. Quantitative measurement can be based on the number of prisoners, defectors, or refugees who came in during the reporting period; or on the number of hours of radio or loudspeaker broadcasts; or on the number of leaflets disseminated. The second and third measurements are production indicators only and do not measure the true effect of PSYOP communications in restructuring attitudes. Even the first set of criteria are not necessarily valid indicators of PSYOP effectiveness because it is necessary to demonstrate a relationship between the PSYOP media output and actions, and the inflow of persons. Qualitative measurement can be based on specific cases of measured attitude change. Most of these data are obtained from verbal accounts gleaned from in-depth interviews or survey measurements of the restructuring of attitudes. In addition, textual or content analysis can be used to obtain PSYOP effectiveness clues from enemy documents, newspapers, periodicals, and broadcast monitoring reports, among others.

There is no doubt that the focus of PSYOP EEI for an insurgency environment is more complex than obtaining information about the "enemy and his environment." PSYOP targets represent a broad spectrum of the population, and the exploitation of the varied targets for PSYOP programs requires considerable technical knowledge. The follow

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