ing paragraphs will discuss the utilization of PSYOP intelligence in the implementation of programs and the essentially technical method used to exploit major PSYOP information sources. The following discussion of the scientific techniques used to gather data from PSYOP information sources will expose the technical nature of PSYOP intelligence require

ments.

UTILIZATION OF PSYOP INTELLIGENCE

Target Analysis (The Importance of Audience Research) *

An important first step, in both commercial communication research and psychological operations, is to understand clearly the nature of the audience(s) and the communication patterns related to those audiences. This is accomplished through audience research or target analysis.

The spectrum of information to be derived from audience research is very wide. Five components will be discussed. First, as indicated previously, an important aspect of audience research is concerned with the communication pattern: How does information get to people? Who depends on radio or newspapers or other individuals for a given kind of communication? Who listens to the radio, and when? Who can pick up leaflets, and when? Who goes to the movies? Who reads magazines, and what kind? Specifically, audience research is necessary in order to find out what channels or combinations of channels to use for a given communication purpose.

Audience research is also used to find out what skills an audience has in reading or listening, and how the audience is likely to interpret a given text, illustration, picture, or slogan. This kind of data is essential so that the communicators will have the needed information to encode or prepare messages that are meaningful to the various PSYOP targets.

Another important point is that audience research is vitally concerned with the credibility of information, sources, and channels. In short, what kind of messages are likely to be believed, accepted, and lead to the desired action.

In addition, PSYOP media programmers require a clear understanding of how messages are understood or perceived, what part individuals and groups play, and how perception gives rise to the restructuring of attitudes and eventually a change in behavior.5

Moreover, audience research is necessary in order to find out something about the social organization of the audience, that is, to answer such questions as: Who are the opinion leaders (key communicators)? How are decisions on a variety of significant subjects likely to be made? What is the role of the primary group and the social organization in the communication process? This information is needed, specifically, to develop a rational communication strategy and to better understand what use to make of interpersonal communication, mass communication, and mixed strategies in the development of the campaign.

It is very important in attempting persuasive communication to really understand the attitudes of people as individuals and as members of social groups. To a degree, Washington research can provide significant data, but, because target analysis is dynamic and should be based on the reality of "today's attitudes," the answer to the above questions can be obtained only after current field research.

The vital importance of audience research is clearly stated in a document prepared by the United States Military Assistance Command, Vietnam (USMACV). It states that:

Adequate audience analysis is the key to effective psychological operations and the basis for audience analysis is a sound responsive intelligence gathering effort [emphasis added]. Audience analysis provides the psyoperator and commander with the vulnerabilities of specific target audiences; susceptibilities to a variety of PSYOP appeals, available communication channels. With this information, the psy operator can develop PSYOP objectives. [Author's note: PSYOP objectives are provided by the command: the "psy operator" develops appropriate themes for media implementation.] 7

It is apparent that target analysis is necessary in order to identify meaningful population groups and subgroups as specific PSYOP targets. Furthermore, target analysis provides important clues to the attitudes of the selected audiences prior to exposure to PSYOP messages. In addition, it is important because it provides the data needed to anticipate what resistance might be met to communication content and to determine what message content and communication strategy might be most meaningful and effective. In sum, target analysis (through the use of surveys and other data-gathering techniques) tends to bring the selected targets closer to the PSYOP source, for example, the radio scriptwriter, the man at the microphone, the artist or illustrator, the newspaper copywriter or leaflet writer, and, of course, to the PSYOP cadres. Thus, it is evident that audience research is a broad and basic requirement of PSYOP programs.

Testing of Communication Content

The need for testing communication content before the message is disseminated is clear: After the message leaves the channel, it is lost to the PSYOP media programmer (the source); therefore, in the communication process, the source wants to know whether he is in tune with his audience, that is, if his messages are properly understood by the receiver.

In testing messages it is important to check the respondent for psychological as well as sociological representativeness (age, sex, occupation, education, and so forth). These two items should not be confused. Prisoners of war, for example, while they may be much like their uncaptured comrades from a sociological point of view, are very different from them, psychologically speaking. They are relatively safe in a prisonerof-war compound and no longer have the physical fears associated with the combat area; also, they are no longer under the strict influence of their political officers and the military primary group (squad and platoon).

Consequently, the fact that a persuasive message, directed to a hostile target, scores high on an initial test with prisoners of war or defectors, does not necessarily mean that it will "bring them in." As stated, the social environment in the prisoner-of-war camp is different from that of the target area. In addition, those selected for testing are usually neutral or friendly to the source; they are not in a hostile communication environment; and their primary group will usually be sympathetic toward the source. Hence, while they may be fair subjects for testing some kinds of communication (that is, general information messages), they are not suitable for testing certain persuasive messages. This is also true of political refugees.

Alfred de Grazia, who made a thorough study (1953) of target analysis and propaganda media, states that:

Although frequently useful as sources of intelligence concerning events and conditions in areas inaccessible to psychological warfare, they (POWs) may not share the attitudes and temper of their former compatriots. The very fact that they chose to flee, and are now situated in such different surroundings affects their perspective and reduces their value as pretest subjects.

De Grazia also stressed that in testing there are no definitive rules. Each instance is unique, and before an estimate can be made of the reliability of a proposed test, careful consideration must be given to the nature of the communication, the type of subjects available, and the overall psychological atmosphere in which the test is to be conducted.

The following paragraphs will discuss some techniques that are used to test or obtain feedback in PSYOP communications. In addition to testing, the techniques are used for other purposes such as attitude measurement. Four techniques will be discussed: (a) the general sample survey, (b) the panel as a survey tool, (c) the in-depth interview, and (d) informal media testing as part of an interrogation or interview.

The General Sample Survey

The sample survey is perhaps the one best systematic method for determining effects of media content. Its application in military PSYOP is, of course, limited to those targets that are accessible to the surveyors. Certainly, in an insurgency environment, this technique can be used more frequently than in conventional military siutations.

The sample survey is usually conducted during and after the PSYOP campaign. By asking significant questions of a relatively small sample of persons, scientifically selected to insure a certain representativeness, the survey can obtain highly accurate information on the percentage of the audience actually reached by various communication channels, and how the audience is responding to the communication. The purposes of the survey technique in PSYOP testing are to determine if the messages are understood, to obtain clues about the credibility of content, to determine if the message evokes the desired response, and finally, to find out whether it has provoked any undesirable effects.

In considering the use of surveys in an insurgent environment, it is pertinent to note certain observations made by one of America's leading attitude research organizations. In its introduction to a 1967 attitude survey conducted by the Center for Vietnamese Studies, this firm commented that one major problem would be respondent suspicion of interviewer motives. As a result, it was thought respondents might alter their answers. Such data can either be taken as a direct indication of the sample population's attitudes and beliefs or

the data can be interpreted comparatively. That is, the majority of the respondents need not express a particular attitude for it to be regarded as an important finding. Whether a given datum is meaningful or not depends in part on the degree of support derived from other parts of the same study. To utilize this more modest definition of the study is to say that the findings can yield considerable insight into the feelings of the people but will provide projectable information on the whole population within fairly broad tolerance limits. 10 (Emphasis added.)

Finally, the study concluded that the interviews did constitute an acceptable reflection of reality."1

There is no doubt that there are many problems in polling overseas. In some countries, it is not feasible to go into the countryside; in others, especially those with autocratic governments, the population is afraid to answer questions, telling interviewers, when they do talk, what they think their government would like to hear them say. The best clues of the extent of bias are to be found in the survey findings themselves. Thus, for example, there have been surveys taken in semipolice states which revealed montonously regular approval of all government actions at close to the 95 percent level, clearly suggesting the absence of freedom of expression.

The United Sstates Information Agency is primarily responsible for conducting attitude surveys overseas. The world opinion surveys conducted by USIA are especially significant to PSYOP communication. They are available and used by other agencies of the government, including the Department of State, the Agency for International Development, the Department of Defense, and the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency. The surveys cover questions from basic values to specific reactions to programs, media, or activities. Interviewing is usually done by indigenous personnel, sometimes by locally run public opinion organizations, and administered by contract professionals under the guidance of USIA staff personnel. Thomas Sorenson notes that a "confidential" policy statement spells out the use of surveys by USIA as follows:

We use the public opinion poll abroad, in concert with other methods, to measure (1) understanding of and support for important U.S. policies and actions, (2) the standing in the public mind of the U.S. compared to ... other nations with respect to relative military power, scientific progress, economic growth, and the like, (3) attitudes on questions and personalities of significance to this country in the conduct of its foreign affairs, (4) the aspirations, fears and prejudices of the USIA target audiences, and (5) the importance and credibility of the various communications media in different countries for different audiences. 12 (Emphasis added.)

Housewife

Priest, minister, monk

This, of course, does not imply that each category requires distinct and definitive media programing. However, based on the importance of the group or subgroup in the particular operational environment, a PSYOP program manager could decide to develop a special pamphlet, magazine article, radio program, or cultural drama team performance directed to any one of the hundreds of possible target categories.

Guidelines for the selection of PSYOP targets are based on several practical considerations: first, the importance of the target to the PSYOP mission. For example, a small rural minority group located in a remote and nonsensitive part of the country would be of little importance to PSYOP programs. On the other hand, a small but highly organized religious order, with its members strategically located throughout the country, could be of great use to PSYOP programs as key or influential communicators. In a similar way, a small minority group that occupies a strategic border area could be an important PSYOP target. Certainly, the PSYOP program manager and planner must understand their significance, as key communicators or important targets, and should direct appropriate communication to affect or restructure their attitudes.

The second guideline for target selection is based on the probability of attitude change. It was stated above that attitudes within a given group could vary from fanatically hostile to extremely friendly. Because it is generally recognized that PSYOP programs (especially mass media) will have little influence on fanatics, intelligence is needed to insure that the major PSYOP effort is directed to typical segments of the population. The atypical person or fanatic could be considered as a secondary or tertiary PSYOP target. For example, Henry V. Dicks, who was a leading PSYOP analyst during World War II, established the following five categories of response to Nazism among German males of military age: Fanatical "hardcore" Nazis (10 percent)

1.

2.

Modified Nazis "with reservations" (25 percent)

3. Unpolitical Germans (40 percent)

Passive anti-Nazis (15 percent), and

5. Active anti-Nazis (10 percent) 3

From the above analysis, it appears that a majority of the German soldiers were politically neutral. No doubt this information was valuable to the PSYWAR planners and media programmers in that it provided the basis for the tone of political messages.

Beliefs, Opinions, Motivations, and Attitudes of Key Audiences as Individuals and

Groups

If attitudes are to be restructured, reinforced, or neutralized, the first essential is to establish a baseline from which to provide an accurate assessment of current attitudes toward significant political, military, economic, and social subjects. The requirement is for more than hunches