students, serve as major communication channels between Western influence and their own culture. Both junior and senior army officers have the added advantage of being well disciplined with both administrative capacity and responsibility. This demonstrated capacity is the more remarkable in a situation where decision-making by deliberation and compromise is neither customarily applied nor effective.

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Middle-echelon officers are trained primarily in their own countries and act as mediators between the top and lower levels. Often they are closer to the rural and urban middle classes and are influential in bringing about change.

In Burma, South Viet-Nam, Malaya, Laos, and the Philippines, middle-level army officers and the rank-and-file are coming into closer contact with the masses through civic action committees, or National Solidarity Councils (Burma) through which they attempt to curb insurgency, fight the Communists and at the same time promote citizenship and greater loyalty to the state. Through these activities, they gain greater status and authority and also become a more effective channel for information.

The development of a traditional, professional corps and the establishment of defense colleges and economic institutions—that is, National Defense College and Defense Services Institute of Burma— indicate an increasingly persuasive and possibly intellectual role for the Army. Certainly the Army can be expected to exert a far greater influence in civilian affairs than ever before.

Most decisive of all, will be the extent to which military leaders are able to broaden their own education so as to see their country in perspective and cope more effectively with the innumerable problems confronting their countries.

Small Businessmen. The economic and social "underdevelopment" of Southeast Asian countries is often reflected in the small size and structure of the middle class. The entrepreneurial classes tend to be more mercantile and financial, and these are not the fields in which economic progress is sought. Although there are numerous small retail traders, they are largely illiterate and have assimilated little modern culture. Government restrictions on foreign businessmen are gradually propelling indigenous groups to participate in the economic life of their countries. As they grow, so may their influence.

Overseas Chinese now control most of the trade in Southeast Asian countries, and although assimilation is taking place, they are likely to preseve a separate cultural identity for several more generations. Restrictive measures now being applied to Overseas Chinese in several countries are intended to offer new opportunities to indigenous businessmen, but these measures may cause more Overseas/Chinese to look toward Peking for support.

University Students. Students are among the foremost progenitors of change, the first to become disenchanted with the slowness of economic

and social progress and the first to revolt against tradition. The inadequate opportunities open to them after graduation may lead, and in some cases have already led, them to agitate for rapid change and to cooperate with groups advocating the overthrow of incumbent gov

ernments.

In Burma, Indonesia and Malaya, especially, student organizations have grown strong and are militantly anti-colonialist and nationalistic. Communist elements everywhere are ready to take advantage of and attempt to infiltrate these groups. For these reasons, ruling elites regard student groups as unruly, fear their power, question their political abilities and are currently making efforts either to silence. them or appease them.

Teachers and University Professors. Teachers throughout the rural areas of Southeast Asia traditionally hold a respected place in society and are important opinion leaders. In rural areas they are often the only newspaper readers and source of news and opinion. But in urban areas the traditional respect for teachers is being gradually transferred to political leaders. In Burma, Indonesia, the Philippines and Malaya, teachers' unions are taking on the character of trade unions as they seek greater benefits for their members and try to promote better citizenship. Their cohesiveness and organization are not great, however, despite highly centralized educational systems.

University professors, many of whom are Western educated, ordinarily are not the leaders of the intelligentsia; government control of the universities often hampers the exercise of leadership and professors generally lack any power to alter the situation.

The major area of effectiveness of this group is as a channel of communication and influence for the intelligentsia and the students. But the wide gulf that exists between faculty and students-based on traditional deference to persons in authority-restricts their effectiveness and makes it only formal one-way communication. The influence of this group is thus based more on prestige than on power or action.

Elite-Level Groups

Intellectuals and Administrators. This important group's attitudes differ substantially from the general national attitudes with respect to goals and values, principally because of their Western training. They believe in the truth of science and in its application: the value of rational administration, written laws and orders, achievement and professionalism. Gradually they are beginning to place less emphasis upon religious and family affiliation, and believe more in progress, and, to a limited extent, planning on a long-term basis. They are somewhat delocalized, albeit less completely than they themselves think. The cleavage between them and the rest of the population is often apparent; their problem a universal one.

These intellectuals-though usually employed in the government

sed or ignored, events are more likely to produce violence or upheaval. . . . In Japan [during 1961, for example], public opinion showed a more mature and responsible face. While the mechanisms for the expression of public opinion were relatively unchanged, evidence suggests that mass media, organized pressure groups, political parties and various front groups were forced to become more aware of and responsive to public opinion favoring moderation. This desire for moderation and public order was galvanized into forceful expression by the excesses of the 1960 anti-security treaty struggle.

The Japanese example provides a classic observation on the impact of opinion. When such crystallization of opinion takes place, all institutions must pay attention to closing the gap between popular sentiment and performance of the media, parties, etc. Only when opinion is in the process of formation, or when it is not held strongly, can the media or parties pursue an active course seeking to control and mold public opinion. Once opinion has crystallized, media and political leaders ignore it only at their peril.

BASIC FACTORS INFLUENCING OPINION

... Several environmental factors produce unique or special problems in all nations of the Far East and basically influence the general orientation of opinion. These include: The aftermath of colonialism during which most Southeast Asian nations are attempting to recover from the painful distortion of traditions resulting from automatic imitation of the West without adequate adaptation; demands of urban elites for rapid modernization of the economy; right wing resistance to reform; peasant pressures to secure social justice and agricultural reforms; attempts to form adequate administrations and the inability of some governments to exercise authority as in South Viet-Nam, Indonesia, Laos and Burma; internal warfare and subversion as in Laos, Thailand, South Viet-Nam; separatist movements and problems of national unity in Indonesia and Burma which weaken the central goverment and aid the Communists; ethnic and racial disputes as in Burma, Malaya, Singapore and Laos; outbursts of nationalist extremism as in Indonesia; regional antagonisms like that of the triangular struggle between Thailand, Cambodia and South Viet-Nam; tensions of the divided countries of Korea, Viet-Nam and Laos; contiguity of several Southeast Asian nations to Communist China and North Viet-Nam.

REGIONAL AND LOCAL ISSUES

Local and regional issues dominate the thinking of most Asians, whether they be political or "trained" elites, laborers or peasants. A brief listing of the prevailing regional and local concerns would include: (1) social change and dislocation caused by modernization, (2) economic orientation, (3) regionalism, (4) Communist threats, (5) separatist movements and problems of national unity and (6) tensions of divided countries and problems of guerrilla warfare.

It would be difficult to over-emphasize the problems and difficulties attendant on modernization and national development in the Far East. Demands for modernization are strong among urban elites, but weak from the primarily unreceptive rural sectors. Peasants prefer to secure social justice and agricultural reforms with few resultant changes in their traditional way of life. Yet, political leaders have over-extended themselves through efforts to modernize their country too rapidly. Some of them, however, like U Nu and Sihanouk, have realized that traditional mores also must be maintained and adapted to the times if stability is to be assured.

Meanwhile, the process of modernization has progressed enough to add new strains to the old as traditional and modern groups clash. Radical changes have produced expectant new social groups, plans without managers, factories without technicians and university graduates without jobs.

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COMMUNICATION PATTERN

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With the exception of Japan and the urban centers of the Far East, the communication pattern is far from adequate for the nations' needs. A low level of information is characteristic for all sectors except the small urban elites. The press remains limited largely to urban distribution and radio receivers are too few and not widely dispersed. Most information is still transmitted through informal channels. Mass media serve to feed an increasing amount of information into informal channels.

.Consequently, the effective utilization of the village council is of considerable importance to leadership as a source of feedback and as a molder of peasant opinion on the government's authority and programs. District leaders and provincial governors share an important role as a feedback source to the leadership and as molders of opinion.

With the exception of Japan, and possibly Malaya and the Philippines, the general communication process providing for a dialogue between decision makers and the public is best characterized as a "semi-closed" one; the public generally cannot express itself by pressure or representative strikes or press campaigns or non-manipulated elections. Yet street demonstrations-albeit ones often organized by political parties for their own benefit, expressions of opinion in the press and intellectual quarterlies and party conferences and conventions, serve to keep the communication process partially open.

ATTITUDES

National Development, Economic

and Technical Aid

In most of the Far East, expectations of social reform and desires for economic modernization exist among Westernized, urbanized elites. The

peasant masses seek land reform, agricultural credit and simple but modern tools, yet cling to the traditional values and social customs.

While the new governments find it difficult to administer even the most basic national functions, they encounter still greater difficulties when they try to initiate change. Efforts to carry out planned economic development become especially burdensome when communication facilities are inadequate and few competent administrators and technicians exist. Since accomplishment lags far behind promise, national discontent is intensified.

Yet "modernization" is an important political issue and a rallying point for intellectual leaders and modern elements of the new states. These are also the most active political elements who can make the issue of modernization a source of unrest, discontent and turmoil in the area.

The new nationalists are seeking ideological and cultural identity, a workable political and economic system, and determined, strong leaders. Their inward search for a national character leads them to probe for a synthesis of traditional and modern ideas. Since national unity is one of the most serious problems confronting these countries, the role of the military as an agent of nationalism in South Korea, South Viet-Nam, Burma, Thailand and Indonesia, cannot be overlooked. Military organizations, which often stage coups for nationalist reasons, have the discipline, talent, esprit de corps and coercive means to reorganize and operate their country more effectively than the diffuse bureaucracies. Yet military rule often creates political tension and an atmosphere more favorable to the growth of communism than democracy.

[International Issues]

There is a massive disinterest, even by Asian elites, in most international issues which do not directly impinge on their interests. The burning struggle in the world for them is not the Berlin crisis or even the ideological struggle between communism and democracy, but rather the development of their own new nations. They say so, quite vigorously. TARGET GROUPS

The following sections will discuss the various groups involved in change. The groups are discussed, for convenience, under the usual three major categories. The categories should be considered flexible, however, for the early stage of modernization and change has not yet produced definitive patterns and roles.

General Populace. This numerically preponderant group is generally inarticulate but capable of becoming a strong force if stirred by their leaders. It includes peasants, ethnic minorities, army enlisted men, and unskilled laborers. The great size of these masses contrasts sharply with the small number of elite who control the society.

Middle Class. This is an expanding group, containing articulate political forces, and one where the distinction between "westernized" and