CHAPTER IX.

ENGLISH MEANS OF DEFENCE.

Now that the worst has befallen, and England, apparently, is compelled to become resigned to her fate, the question forces itself upon us whether Russia shall be allowed to go on as hitherto, encouraged by the ominous acquiescence and criminal indifference of English statesmen, in her usual way of aggression, or whether an entire change of British policy in Central Asia has not become an imperative necessity? I suppose that every sober-minded and patriotic Englishman will agree with me when I say that, considering the imminent danger lurking in every movement springing from indecision and an effete policy, the statesmen of Great Britain must make up their minds to look coming events boldly in the face. They can recede no more-not even a single step; and asserting the fearlessness common to the English character, they must declare to Russia: So far you have come, but further you shall not come; the time for subterfuges and empty diplomatising is gone by,

and every future move towards the south will be looked upon as a declaration of war against England, and will be opposed with all the available power of Great Britain and India. And, indeed, only the intentionally blind will still doubt the approaching danger. The famous saying of Mr. Gladstone (vide his speech, November 27, 1878): "I have no fear myself of the territorial extensions of Russia-no fear of them whatever; I think such fears are only old woman's fears," can hardly find its supporters nowadays. The Duke of Argyll wrote a very few years ago: "My own view has always been that the conquest by Russia of the Tekke-Turkomans and of all the tribes of Central Asia has been inevitable. I have held, further, that no civilisation and no commerce could be established in those regions until that conquest had been accomplished, and that on this ground, as well as on several other grounds, it was at once useless and undignified on our part to be perpetually remonstrating against advances' which we could not prevent, and which, in the interests of humanity, we ought not to regret." I daresay that illustrious statesman will consider twice before he utters such a view, concerning the Russian conquest of Herat.

Henceforward all parties in England must agree that Russia's hostile designs against India are patent;

that all the humanitarian and civilising work, with which Russia has been making pretence hitherto, is a mere humbug, and that all hopes for a mutual understanding in the future-I mean the division of the Asiatic spoil, of which we shall speak hereafter-are null and void. It is, at all events, a most saddening spectacle that Russia, led on and encouraged by English self-delusion, has succeeded hitherto in securing material and enormous advantages over her rival; such advantages as will form a standing peril to England, and will hardly be overcome, not even by the most extraordinary pluck and perseverance, which are the pre-eminent qualities of the Anglo-Saxon race.

First of all, we may hint at the uninterrupted chain of communication Russia has in her rear, from the interior of the mother country to the very gate of India. It is abundantly known that, besides the Caucasus having a standing army of from 120,000 to 150,000 men, Russia is able to get support from Odessa to Batoum in one day; from Batoum to Baku a train is able to run in eighteen hours, and from the last-named place, across the Caspian sea, steamers run to Mikhailofsk in twenty-four hours. Here begins the Transcaspian Railway-it will soon be finished to Ashkabad-the prolongation of which has been recently sanctioned as far as Sarakhs, enabling Russia thus to send troops in something less than six days

We may add as well, that

from Odessa to Sarakhs, which is a hundred miles distant from Herat; whilst the English, supposing the railway sanctioned by the Government as far as Pishin to be finished in two years, are still 470 miles distant from Herat. the one hundred miles separating Russia from Herat lie in a fertile, level and well watered country, whilst the 470 miles an English army would have to make, pass through a frequently arid tract, and haunted by a population, the friendly feelings and assistance of which cannot always be relied upon. In summing up briefly what we said before, we can state that Russia will be able to march to Herat from her railway terminus in eight or ten days, whilst England, considering the great distance, would require forty-seven days; to say the least an extraordinary difference in time and in the facilities of locomotion, if we consider the important part railways are playing in modern warfare.

Reflecting, therefore, upon this great drawback England has to contend with in any future complications with Russia, which through her position in Penjdeh has become an imminent threat, it would be the most perilous self-delusion to adhere in future to the principle of Afghan neutrality, or of Afghan friendship; a principle laid down by such statesmen only as, eager to shirk liabilities and fond of

patchwork, were either short-sighted enough to ignore unmistakable facts, or betrayed utter want of patriotism in trying to put on the shoulders of their successors burdens such as they themselves did not feel equal to sustaining. I have always ridiculed the idea of making a buffer of the country of the Afghans, being fully convinced of the want of elasticity of the material employed for that purpose. I never was a believer in Afghan friendship, and even now I believe that such sympathies will come forward only if far greater dangers threatening from the north compel the unruly fanatic mountaineers beyond the Suleiman range to look to the British lion for shelter. In the meantime I should not wait until the whole nation gets convinced of the necessity of such a step. But the idea of a whole Afghan nation being a preposterous one, considering that these unmanageable elements can be hardly ever roused into unity, it suggests itself to now make use of that portion of the national element which stands nearest to the possibility of a voluntary movement of that character; that portion which is headed now by a prince aware of the gravity of the situation, and who, owing to his thorough knowledge of the character of greedy, faithless, and despotic Russia, will give preference to English offers of amity, and who, utterly convinced of the necessity of yielding, will