Domestic hydropower and coal provide only 4-5% of current electricity demand and nuclear power supplies approximately 20%. The Japanese anticipate the nuclear proportion to rise to 40% or more by the turn of the century. Nonetheless, Japan remains heavily dependent on energy imports. Ambassador Mansfield believes that the U.S. should export excess Alaskan crude oil to Japan, utilizing U.S. merchant ships.

Prime Minister Nakasone's urging that the Japanese increase their purchases of U.S. products is seen as a bonafide attempt to ameliorate the trade imbalance. According to Ambassador Mansfield, this component of Japan's "Action Plan" has gotten 120-130 companies interested in U.S. products and has resulted in $1 $2 billion in additional imports from the U.S., with predictions that this figure could go as high as $7 billion.

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He stressed that the Japanese government's influence on Japanese business is not as strong as imagined. All sectors voluntarily cooperate and often

collaborate with each other, which gives the impression of substantial government intervention..

U.S.--Japan relations in defense cooperation are considered good. Japan is often criticized for spending less than 1 percent of its GNP on defense, but if one includes veterans pensions and other indirect outlays that are normally included in the defense expenditure calculations of NATO countries, then the figure for Japan is about 1.6 percent. By comparison, the U.S. spends about 7 percent of its GNP on defense.

Ambassador Mansfield identified political restraints against a rapid buildup in the Japanese defense effort:

Japan is still living under the MacArthur legacy of Post-World War II defense dismantlement provisions. Nonetheless, Japan currently has land, sea and air armed forces of 245,000 personnel.

Japan has a disinclination to become a regional military power once again.

The Japanese public is generally anti-military minded, blaming the military sector for past problems.

The Japanese Government has experienced substantial budget deficits since the mid-1970's. The Nakasone government has pushed a policy of reducing the deficit without raising taxes, with strict prohibitions on increases in nearly all budget categories except for defense, foreign aid and debt service.

Despite these political factors, Japan has been increasing its defense expenditures during the 1980's by about 5 percent annually in real terms, with a defense budget now projected to rise by 6.6 percent to $16.7 billion in the fiscal year beginning April 1, 1986. Japan provides a major contribution to the U.S. perimeter bases in the Pacific by assuming one-third of the total operating cost of U.S. bases in Japan (a higher ratio than the equivalent costs paid by West Germany for U.S. bases there). Furthermore, the U.S. pays no rent on its bases in Japan, whereas rent is paid in the Philippines.

The ability of Japan to build up its defense is considered important in light of the fact that the Soviet Union has about one-third of its forces in the Pacific region. The U.S.S.R has increased its occupational contingent on the northern islands of Japan to include 2000 troops and a squadron of MIG 23 fighter aircraft.

The U.S.S.R also uses bases in Vietnam, such as Cam Ranh Bay, on a semi-permanent basis, giving it a Pacific warm-water port on a year round

basis.

The U.S. Navy has strengthened the 7th Fleet in the Pacific, going from 51 ships in 1977, to a fairly modernized complement of 80 ships today. However, the geographic scope for the fleet has expanded to include the Arctic, Antarctic and Indian Oceans. Given the increased importance of the U.S. Pacific Fleet, it is encouraging that relations concerning U.S. bases in Japan have, on the whole, been amicable.

Japan has a substantial trade relationship with the Republic of Korea. of the first things that Prime Minister Nakasone did when he took office was to visit Korea to improve their relations further. Korean President Chun reciprocated by visiting Japan last year.

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In conclusion Ambassador Mansfield characterized the Pacific Basin as "an interdiction of facts, figures, and policies all coming together in a new force", emphasizing that the U.S. future lies in this region.

Members of the delegation met with the Prime Minister of Japan, the Honorable Yasuhiro Nakasone. On behalf of the delegation, Congressman Fuqua noted the concern of Members of the U.S. Congress regarding the continued imbalance in trade between Japan and the United States. He expressed the thanks of Americans for the strong and decisive interest which the Prime Minister had taken on this question, and the steps which were being implemented, with his support, to address this question in Japan. He also expressed interest on behalf of himself and his colleagues in furthering international cooperation between the United States and Japan in the field of scientific research.

Mr. Nakasone commented that Japan was interested in cooperation in several areas including nuclear fusion, biotehnology and the eradication of cancer.

At the conclusion of the meeting, Mr. Fuqua thanked the Prime Minister for his interest in these matters and for the opportunity to meet with him on this occasion.

FOURTH U.S.-JAPAN PARLIAMENTARY

COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY MEETING

Dates: January 8 and 9, 1986

Location:

Vice-Speaker's Residence, Tokyo, Japan

Background: The meeting constituted the Fourth Interparliamentary Meeting between Members of the U.S. Congress and the Japanese Diet to discuss various issues pertaining to science and technology.

Opening remarks were made by Mr. Kodi Hushimi and Mr. Fuqua. Mr. Fuqua's remarks are included in the appendix. Mr. Hushimi noted that basic science and technology, while assigned to the Agency for Science and Technology, was too broad to be adequately covered by one government agency. He pointed out that the Ministry of Education, Science and Culture (Monsusbo) was heavily involved in basic science whereas the Agency for Science and Technology had a strong focus on technology and its applications.

Mr. Hushimi felt that Japan must promote more basic research in its institutions. He commented that basic science is the shared inheritance of all mankind and thus made international cooperation possible; the closer research was to application, the more difficult international cooperation be

came.

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Mr. Fuqua pointed out the long and continuing support for basic R&D in the U.S., referring to the Vannevar Bush report, "Science The Endless Frontier." He noted the U.S. now spends over $8.0 billion for basic scientific research through programs under NSF, NASA, DOE, and other federal agencies. He referred to Japan's management and coordination of scientific research involving the public and private sectors as a model for other countries. In closing he mentioned the Committee's on-going review of science policy, noting that one conclusion would focus on the need for further international cooperation.

The bulk of discussion focused on the issues of information sharing and international cooperation. The Japanese representatives made the point that much scientific information was lost because it was published in Japanese. Mr. Fuqua noted that the Congress was calling for further efforts to translate Japanese technical publications into English. He also observed that basic scientific information exchange was not a problem, only proprietary research. Mr. Mineta raised the issue of resources in Japan being focused on applied rather than basic research. The Japanese delegation agreed that further efforts were necessary in conducting basic research and criticized representatives of the Japanese science agencies for not supporting more basic research. The Japanese representatives noted that part of the problem was due to the close cooperation between the public and private sectors. Whereas the government desired to share scientific and technical information, the private sector orientation toward applied reseach often precluded such sharing.

Mr. Packard noted that information exchange was an important issue, where a distinction between basic research and application of technology was necessary. He proposed bi-national talks on science and technology information exchange that focused on protecting marketable information. The suggestion was well received by the Japanese delegation.

The Japanese have made it a matter of governmental policy to increase substantially their activities in basic research. It is commonly held that the Japanese have been extremely successful in developing advanced technology but this has been derived from the fundamental research that has been carried out in other countries. It is not entirely clear as to why the Japanese made the decision to embark on a concerted thrust in basic research. It could be out of a sense of obligation to do their share; it could be to avoid the criticism they receive currently; it could be to strive for the honor and respect that goes with making fundamental discoveries; or it could be out of a genuine concern that in the future they could be left behind if other countries become more adept at converting their own basic research into high technology.

Topic: INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION IN MFE RESEARCH

Mrs. Lloyd presented a formal statement concerning the situation for the U.S. fusion program and the possibility of US/ Japanese cooperation. Her statement is included in the appendix.

The main points of Mrs. Lloyd's presentation were:

1. The U.S. fusion program has sustained significant budget cuts in recent years and will probably be cut further since the Administration will apparently recommend such action.

2. The U.S. fusion program probably should be cut back to a more modest level than has been contemplated up until recently, but it is essential to retain a goal of an ignition device.

3. The prospect of cooperation with the Russians in the fusion area remains a matter of general ities and indecision.

4. Meaningful participation, although probably no significant costsharing, by the Japanese and Europeans is a likely reality for the ignition device being planned.

Summary of statement by Mr. Komiyama:

Mr. Jushiro Komiyama spoke about international cooperation in general from the viewpoint of a Summit agenda item. He cited the personnel and information exchanges, and cooperative agreements in energy and natural resources, and suggested that in such cooperation there is a tendency to overlook the less glamorous joint activities that can be undertaken with the NICs. He mentioned the unfortunate problems with the cooperation in coal conversion between the U.S. and Japan (the SRC project). He said, "knowledge creates prosperity," and reviewed U.S./ Japanese fusion cooperation which was given impetus by the Japanese concern for clean energy sources. Mr. Komiyama noted that the U.S. is slowing down the overall magnetic fusion program while the Japanese JT-60 project is progressing well. He noted this is a bilateral area of great Japanese investment (e.g., $50 million with GA Technologies alone) and questioned, "Why are the Soviets suddenly so interested?" Mr. Komiyama turned to nuclear fission cooperation where the LWR technology is viewed as already established, TMI was a "human accident", and the fast breeder reactor area is one of continued cooperation. He repeated the importance of technological cooperation with the NICs and pointed to the recent shift in the People's Republic of China military resources (one million people) to industrial-sector activity.

Topic:

INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION IN HIGH ENERGY PHYSICS

Mr. Fuqua presented his statement at this point on international cooperation in high energy physics. His statement is included in the appendix.

The next generation of high energy accelerator that is under consideration is the Superconducting Super Collider. It is projected to have an energy of 20,000x20,000 Gev (20x1012x20x1012 ev) in the center of mass frame of reference. This compares with the current CERN accelerator which has an energy of 270x270 Gev and the Tevatron of Fermilab which will have an energy of 1000x1000 Gev.

Mr. Fuqua made the following points:

1. High energy physics is at a possible breakthrough point with the possibility being great that we may achieve understanding of the creation of the universe.

2. The needed experiments are extremely costly and probably will not be done anytime soon without international cost-sharing.

3. Such international cooperation will not occur unless financial balancing is done across a number of the very expensive research areas facing the international scientific community.

Other comments:

Mr. Rhee of the Republic of Korea's Assembly, pointed out the strong linkage between science and technology and the quality of human welfare. He noted that the U.S. and Japan are the world's leading technological countries and their cooperation is an admirable milestone. He indicated the Republic of Korea's desire to contribute to U.S./Far East cooperation in science and technology.

Dr. Kodi Hushimi cited his 20 years of experience in magnetic fusion and questioned the duplication in the three big world devices (i.e., TFTR, JET, JT-60). He believes international cooperation is necessary today and recounted the history of IAEA fusion research culminating in the INTOR project. He said the Japanese Atomic Energy Research Institute's (JAERI) view is that this theoretical design could become a real machine.

Mr. Packard mentioned that the Superconducting Super Collider (SSC) and fusion are expensive research areas; he raised the issue of the prospects for clean coal technology and pointed out that nuclear fission is struggling to survive in the U.S. partly because of environmental pressures and this will cause an increased reliance on coal. He expressed hope that the international community will look favorably at cooperation on an SSC project.

Mr. Komiyama remarked about Dr. Keyworth urging SSC cooperation and raising this high energy physics issue to the Summit level with Prime Minister Nakasone. He emphasized that such a high level political judgment is needed so that there can be some clear policy guidance for finding funding for such big projects. He noted that the Space Station has been a Western Allies' Summit item, but there is still no firm decision on Japanese involvement.

Dr. Hushimi returned to discussing the SSC and superconducting magnetic technology in the magnetic fusion energy program such as demonstrated at the Large Coil Test Facility (LCTF) in Oak Ridge. Mrs. Lloyd noted that, in addition to alleviating budget pressures, international cooperation has the benefit of strengthening common bonds among the Common Market countries.

Mr. Packard returned to the subject of clean coal and Japanese interests and Mr. Komiyama reaffirmed their interest in liquefaction technology and clean combustion approaches such as coal/water mixtures. Mr. Komiyama pointed out, however, that the Japanese emphasis has been in the post treatment phase of environmental controls, e.g., hot gas clean-up and the flue gas desulfurization (FGD) units. Mr. Komiyama explicitly expressed his opposition to US/USSR cooperation on a magnetic fusion project.

Mrs. Lloyd cited the obstacles to implementing such an agreement (e.g., technology transfer concerns) and reminded the DIET Members that Japan would have an opportunity to comment on the US/USSR proposal at the Tokyo Summit. Mr. Komiyama questioned as to who was responsible for pushing this cooperation on the U.S. side and Dr. Keyworth's name was mentioned.* Mr. Fuqua cited the long history of US/USSR fusion cooperation (scientific exchanges beginning in the 1960's). Mrs. Lloyd recommended that Japan make

its position known before the Tokyo Summit. Mr. Packard noted finally that the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) proposal by the President was a surprise to many Members of the Congress also, but speculated that, just as in the case of SDI, the President is putting "feelers out" on magnetic fusion cooperation and the U.S. position is not cast in concrete.

* Staff has subsequently been informed that Mr. Paul Martin of the NSC staff was the author of the briefing paper on MFE for the Summit and the sole U.S. negotiator on that agenda item with Dr. Vel ikhov of the USSR.

In a sense the major pure research activity being contemplated on the international scene is the SSC. However, when a pure research project gets large enough, as is the SSC, the associated activity becomes very applied in character and there are major opportunities for industrially significant spin-offs.