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ited insights of these experts by revealing the to dispense with all but the most modest, the complex relationship of past to present- , degree to which decisionmaking on critical commonsensical “theory” and perhaps even of how the present may subtly influence the issues has been closely held, the monopoly to enter the fray over what the evidence agenda for historical research and how hisof a handful of leaders. Moreover, the new actually means. The theoretically enthralled torical findings may illuminate current probhistory reveals that major decisions have may thereby rediscover in Chinese policy often been tightly guarded, not something to some of the classic and “soft” issues of share with a foreigner-except where it suits international politics—the importance of Defining a Historical Agenda the purposes of the party center to make personality, the contingent nature of poliavailable partial and sometimes tendentious tics, the complexity of thought behind ac- CCP foreign policy is, as the above information.

tion, and the persistence and power of politi- discussion suggests, a field distinctly in flux. The shift toward a more historical ren- cal culture.

Specialists have put a good deal of time and dering of the CCP past should have a notable While this new CCP history should give energy into coping with the recent flood of impact on political science research. Those political scientists pause, they also have im- valuable documentary and other materials. of a more descriptive bent should welcome portant contributions to make to a more The flood may be cresting, and those who and benefit from the accumulation of fresh historically oriented field. Their concern have escaped drowning and reached the evidence that makes possible greater ana- with understanding the state and explaining safety of high ground are now in a position lytic rigor and sharper interpretive insight. its exercise of power has generated a reper- to reflect on their future tasks. The more theoretically inclined may be the toire of theories that may prove helpful to The most obvious is to link a better more threatened, but some will accommo- anyone trying to make sense of considerable documented version of CCP external reladate to the new data, using it as ballast that new data and still uncertain of the most tions chronologically and thematically to will keep them closer to the safety of the fruitful way to frame the issues. Moreover, Chinese foreign relations in general. Qing ground. Indeed, it is possible that taking a the political scientists' preoccupation with sources, printed and archival, have long been longer view and looking at the implications contemporary questions stands as a salutary available, and have been recently reinforced of better documented cases may induce them reminder to the more historically oriented of by the opening of collections located in the

[graphic][subsumed]

PRC. Materials from the Republican era get they often resolve by impaling themselves such terms as “national interest,” “strategic steadily better as fresh publications appear on one or the other of its horns.

interests,” "geostrategic imperatives,” and and archives open on Taiwan and within the Of all the dualisms, none is more perva- "geopolitical realities.” Thus we get acPRC. The new CCP material helps round sive and troubling than the idea of the “inter- counts that confidently proclaim China's out an already rich documentary base and national system” and its conceptual twin, foreign relations is "propelled by national makes all the more urgent an integrated “domestic determinants.” A moment of criti- interests" (not its evil twin, “ideology”). treatment of China's external relations. cal reflection reminds us that the make-up of Other accounts seek to differentiate “pragDrawing on this range of sources, historians the international system is not self-evident, matic” policies (usually linked with Zhou can begin to offer in-depth treatment of all and those who champion its power to shape Enlai's or Deng Xiaoping's name) from the kinds of topics associated with a well national policy differ widely on what the “radical” or “provocative” policies (here developed foreign-relations literature— system is and how it works. Claims for the Mao or the “Gang of Four" is likely to from important personalities to the relation primacy of domestic determinants” suffer appear), and hold up as an ideal a “balanceof policy to the “public.” It should also from an equally serious problem: "domes- of-power” approach that secures “strategic convey a more complex sense of policy with tic" is understood so narrowly and determi

tic” is understood so narrowly and “determi- interests,” “national security,” and “foreignfeatures-economic opportunism, political nants” is taken so literally that the phrase is policy interests” in a changing “internaflexibility, cultural ambivalence, strategic almost drained of its significance.

tional system." opportunism, and policy confusion—long The impulse to distinguish domestic and While this language most commonly associated with the better studied policies of international influences may not be particu- appears in American writing on contempoother countries. To bring these themes into larly useful in understanding the foreign rary China, Chinese scholars writing about better focus specialists will want to place policy of any country, and in the case of their country's foreign policy have been the CCP's historical experience in a com- China draws a distinction that party leaders showing signs of appropriating this vocabuparative framework and look for insight on from Chen Duxiu to Deng Xiaoping would lary. Influenced by American international the CCP that might emerge from juxtaposi- have found baffling, even wrong-headed. relations literature as well by their own search tion with other foreign-relations histories.22 The growing availability of documentation for a usable foreign-policy past, they have

This broad agenda, good as far as it makes it possible to argue what common emphasized the neatly formulated and goes, neglects a fundamental and necessar- sense already suggests—that discussions of smoothly executed nature of Chinese policy ily unsettling interpretive collision about to Chinese policy need to transcend this and the and held

up

Zhou Enlai as a model of “realplay out within the CCP foreign-relations other stark categories that narrow and im- ism” and “expertise," while wrestling over field. Its resolution bears directly on the poverish our discourse.

whether to make Mao's contributions to kind of agenda the field will follow. As Some scholars (including political sci- foreign-policy“realistic”or“ideological.”25 historians turn to CCP foreign relations, entists) have already begun to escape these Behind this vocabulary lurks a strongly they will bring with them an anthropologi- stark alternatives.24 They have shown not judgmental impulse antipathetic to less unical concern with culture and a post-modern just that Mao and his colleagues operated versal, more culture-specific insights. Unsensitivity to language, both currently strong within an international arena of Cold War derstanding policy, whatever its complexipreoccupations within their discipline.23 rivalry and in a China of revolutionary aspi- ties, takes a back seat to handing down a Those interpretive proclivities are distinctly rations and conflict but also that those worlds clear-cut verdict based on what a “rational” at odds with at least three fundamental fea- overlapped and interacted. Conclusions or "realistic” actor would have done in a tures of the established literature and dis- drawn from the behavior of the American particular set of circumstances. course defined by political science. Finding imperialists, upheavals observed in Eastern The Korean War literature starkly illusways to make fresh, thoughtful use of the Europe, and Nikita Khrushchev's theses on trates this point about the powerful impulse new historical evidence is here as perhaps in peaceful coexistence played off against in- toevaluate the rationality or realism of policy. general inextricably tied to a critical exami- ternal discussions and debates about the best Chinese scholars have joined Americans in nation of older, well worn, and often narrow road for China's socialist development, treat- reporting approvingly on Beijing's reassurchannels of interpretation.

ment of peasants and intellectuals, the nature ingly clear, unitary, and above all carefully One point of conflict arises from the of party leadership, and China's appropriate

of party leadership, and China's appropriate calculated response to U.S. intervention on long-established tendency to cast policy in place in a world revolutionary movement. the peninsula. In the American literature on terms of antinomies that in effect impose an Together the foreign and the domestic strands deterrence China's handling of the Korean interpretive strait-jacket. The literature is were interwoven into a single web, and nei- War has even been enshrined as a positive peppered with reference to policies that are ther strand can be removed without doing model in striking contrast to the bumblings supposed to fit in one of several either/or fundamental harm to our understanding of

fundamental harm to our understanding of of U.S. policymakers at the time. categories. Policies were either “idealistic” the whole.

jected now to a closer look thanks to the new or “realistic.” They were either “ideologi- A second point of likely conflict is an evidence, this positive characterization seems cally driven" or responsive to "situational interpretive vocabulary whose unexamined wide of the mark. Mao and his associates, it factors.” They were shaped either by the assumptions exercise a quiet but nonetheless now turns out, were themselves engulfed in “international system" or by “domestic de- dangerous linguistic tyranny. Any reader of the kind of

the kind of messy and confused terminants." These alternatives confront international relations would recognize the decisionmaking that also afflicted Amerischolars with an interpretive dilemma that widely used lexicon, including prominently can leaders. Viewed in this new light,

26 Sub

Beijing's reaction to the Korean crisis be- mentally culture-bound or at least that em- tioned by personal background, beliefs, and comes interesting not so much for the evalu- ploy a definition of culture so narrow as to surroundings. ative question of who did the better job but close off potentially interesting lines of in- Analysts using imposed, culture-bound rather for the interpretive question of how do vestigation. Historians more interested in

vestigation. Historians more interested in categories find themselves in much the same we understand the limits of cultural under- understanding the past than judging it will impossible situation an outsider would face standing and human control in a story strongly find limited appeal in hauling CCP leaders in trying to understand the Australian abmarked by chaos and contingency. These into court and formulating a verdict on the origines who spoke Dyirbal. To ignore their observations are not meant to deny rational- basis of their realism.

language is to close the door to understandity on the part of Chinese policymakers or The third interpretive impulse likely to ing their world with its unfamiliar classificafor that matter on the part of Americans but create conflict is a notion of ideology that is tion: bayi (human males, animals); balan to highlight the difficulty of evaluating policy ahistorical and anemic. This unfortunate (human females, water, fire, fighting); balam rationality, especially with the help of simple, approach to the role of ideas in policymaking (nonflesh food); and bala (a residual catdichotomous notions of policy as either real- is in part a reflection of the rigid dualisms egory).32 This breakdown may not make istic or idealistic, driven by either careful and fixation with rationality discussed above. much sense to an outsider, but if getting into calculations of national interest or by ungov- It is also a reflection of a broader tendency the head of the “other” is important, then ernable ideological impulses.27

during the Cold War to denigrate ideology uncovering the particular categories used to Though the critique of the rational actor as a peculiar deformation of the socialist constitute their world is essential. By conmodel is widely made and apparently widely bloc, a tendency that carried over into the trast, the conceptual baggage the observer accepted, 28 much of the CCP literature still China field as international relations spe- brings from home must be counted a serious seems unusually preoccupied with distin- cialists, schooled in comparative commu- impediment. Employing outside frames of guishing sound from misguided policy. This nism, applied a Soviet model to Chinese reference may obscure more China-centered siren call to make judgments about interna- politics. In their accounts a pervasive, pow- and China-sensitive perspectives and thereby tional behavior finds a response in all of us, erful Marxist-Leninist ideology came to of- divert us from our ultimate destination—the but answering the call carries dangers. The fer an important key to understanding Chi- understanding of China's beliefs and behavmost apparent is the tendency for simple nese policy.

ior in international affairs 33 judgments and a polemical style to appeal The resulting notions of CCP ideology One promising way to get beyond simple most strongly when limited evidence af- are, it would now appear, ahistorical. The and mutually exclusive notions of CCP idefords the weakest supporting grounds for use of the Soviet Union as a starting point for ology-for example, either making it “Marxthem. For example, it was easy to offer up an understanding Chinese thinking may be un- ism-Leninism" or "nationalism"-is to think idealized Mao when his own party decided wise and is certainly premature because the of it as a fabric that we can better understand what we should know, and it was natural to Soviet model is itself drawn in narrow politi- by following the strand of keywords. A move toward a negative appraisal when new cal terms and lacks firm historical ground- close look at those keywords and the relarevelations thrust at us serious, previously ing.29 Moreover, the Chinese party, which tionship among them might prove helpful in unsuspected personal flaws. As the evi- itself only recently began to come into sharper defining policy discourse over time and undence becomes fuller and more reliable for historical focus, is unlikely to offer an easy locking contending visions of China's place Mao as for the CCP in general, older judg- fit with any Soviet template.30 Indeed, we

in the world 34 ments must confront previously unimagined may look back on this Sino-Soviet ideologi- “Patriotism” (aiguo zhuyi) is one of moral and political dimensions, and what cal model and realize that the conclusions those neglected keywords examined earlier previously seemed self-evident evaluations drawn from one set of highly circumstantial in these pages. Another is “small and weak dissolve into complexity.

studies became the foundation for another nationalities" (ruoxiao minzu). It too would But beyond the simple problem of judg- set of equally circumstantial studies. repay close examination, revealing comments handed down on scant or skewed The prevalent thin, abstract conception plexities not easily spotted in a straightforevidence there is a broader and more com- of ideology should not divert our attention ward reading of formal party statements. plex problem. The claim to understand and from more subtle and perhaps powerful in- Like patriotism, this term had its roots in the judge “national interest,” “national secu- formal ideologies that may be of consider- late Qing, and persisted in CCP discourse rity,” and so forth rests on a fundamentally ably greater analytic value.31 Examining from the party founding through the Maoist metaphysical faith that value preferences the intellectual predispositions and funda- era and even beyond, injecting into it tenserve to settle otherwise eminently debat- mental assumptions that constitute informal sions as well as unintended ironies. China at able issues. That claim becomes often un- ideology may render us more sensitive to the times offered flamboyant rhetorical support thinkingly universalistic when scholars dis- cultural and social influences over policy. for its revolutionary neighbors, but it has cover in countries and cultures other than Such an approach may thus help us better also collided with India and Vietnam, both their own roughly comparable notions of understand how calculations of “interest" important members of that community to national interest and national security-at are rooted in social structure and filtered which China claimed to belong. How has least among policymakers deemed suffi- through a screen of culturally conditioned the concept of "small and weak nationaliciently skilled in the realist calculus of power. assumptions and how individual responses ties" evolved, and what has China's regional The inadvertent results of this rational actor to "objective” circumstances in the interna- ambitions and limited resources done to framework are judgments that are funda- tional environment are profoundly condi- reconstitute the meaning of that term?

This discussion of keywords suggests that we need a more subtle and expansive 1. The observations that follow draw in part on Jin notion of ideology—one that includes more Liangyong, "Jianguo yilai jindai Zhongwai guanxishi than the formal ideology that the party uti

yanjiu shuping” (A review of post-1949 research on the lized as an organizational glue and mobili

history of modern Sino-foreign relations), Jindaishi

yanjiu, 3(1985), 193-214; Wang Xi and Wang Bangxian, zation guide—if we are to move toward a “Woguo sanshiwu nianlai de ZhongMei guanxishi richer understanding of CCP external rela- yanjiu” (Research on the history of Sino-American tions. The network of ideas that make up an

relations in our country over the last thirty-five years),

Fudan xuebao 5 (1984), 73-76; Tao Wenzhao, informal ideology is a complex, unstable

“ZhongMei guanxishi yanjiu shinian huigu" (Looking amalgam drawn from a wide variety of back on a decade of research on the history of Sinosources and varying significantly from indi- American relations), in Xin de shiye: ZhongMei guanzishi vidual to individual. Some party leaders

lunwenji (New fields of vision: a collection of articles on

the history of Sino-American relations] (Nanjing: had experienced formative brushes with an

Nanjing daxue, 1991), 282-307; a fairly extensive readarchism. Others had reacted strongly against ing in party history periodicals; and conversations with disturbing urban conditions that made capi- Chinese colleagues working on the CCP's foreign rela

tions. talism the main foe. Yet others constructed from their rural roots

2. Yao Xu, “KangMei yuanChao de yingming juece” populist outlook.

[The brilliant decision to resist America and aid Korea), Each borrowed from a rich, complex intel- Danghshi yanjiu 5 (1980), 5-14. A new generation of lectual tradition, drew from distinct regional scholarship heralded by Yao's work did greatly improve roots, and learned from diverse political

on earlier thin and domestically oriented accounts such

as Hu Zhongchi, KangMei yuanChao yundong shihua experience as youths. A more penetrating (An informal history of the resist-America aid-Korea grasp of Chinese policy depends ultimately campaign) (Beijing: Zhonghua qingnian, 1956), which on exploring the enormous diversity of think- had its own, even more pronounced patriotic premises. ing that shaped its course.

3. These tendencies are evident in Ding Shouhe and Yin

Shuyi, Cong wusi qimeng yundong dao makesi zhuyi de The negotiation of these and other points

chuanbo (From May Fourth enlightenment to the propaof difference between historians and politi- gation of Marxism) (rev. ed.; Beijing: Sanlian, 1979), cal scientists will redefine the agenda for esp. 88-108; Lu Mingzhuo, “Li Dazhao zai wusi yundong CCP foreign-policy studies and in the pro

shiqi de fandi sixiang” (Li Dazhao's anti-imperialist

thought during the period of the May Fourth movecess help recast a field already in the midst

ment), in Jinian wusi yundong liushi zhounian xueshu of important change as a result of the revival taolunhui lunwenxuan (A selection of articles from a of CCP studies in China. Historians taking scholarly conference in commemoration of the sixtieth a more prominent place in the field will be

anniversary of the May Fourth movement), ed. Zhongguo advancing a new constellation of questions Zhongguo shehui kexue, 1980), 2: 151-63; and Zhu

shehui kexueyuan jindaishi yanjiusuo (Beijing: and methods. The response by political Jianhua and He Rongdi, “Shilun Li Dazhao de fandi scientists will doubtless vary with those of a sixiang” (An exploration of Li Dazhao's anti-imperialdescriptive bent finding it easy, while those

ist thought), in Li Dazhao yanjiu lunwenji (A collection

of research papers on Li Dazhao), ed. Han Yide and devoted to theory may well find the transi

Wang Shudi (2 vols.; Shijiazhuang: Hebei renmin, tion awkward. How much this interaction 1984), 2: 515-29. across disciplinary lines will lead to a new 4. Pei-yi Wu, The Confucian's Progress: Autobiographimix of concerns and approaches and how

cal Writings in Traditional China (Princeton: Princeton

University Press, 1990), offers a suggestive introducmuch historians and political scientists will

tion to this genre. turn their back on each other, effectively 5. The earliest Chinese version appears to be Waiguo creating a schism in the field, remains to be jizhe xibei yinxiangji (A foreign reporter's impressions seen. Whatever the outcome outside of of the northwest] (Shanghai: Dingchou bianyishe, 1937).

A partial copy is in the Wang Fu Shih collection, China, party historians within China are for

University Archives, University of Missouri, Kansas their part likely to maintain a largely au- City. Hu Yuzhi translated one of the early versions, tonomous community interacting selectively perhaps this one. Snow's account was also published with foreigner counterparts. Thus this trend

under the title Xixing manji (Notes on a journey to the

west) and Mao Zedong zizhuan (Mao Zedong's autobitoward a more historical picture of CCP

ography]). For details on the production of the autobiogexternal relations, at work in both the United

raphy, see Zhonggong zhongyang wenxian yanjiushi States and China, is not likely to lead to a and Xinhua tongxunshe, comps., Mao Zedong xinwen new monolithic field. And perhaps this

gongzuo wenxuan (A selection of Mao Zedong works on

journalism](Beijing: Xinhua, 1983), 37-38; Wu Liping, outcome, marked by national and disciplin

comp., Mao Zedong yijiusanliunian tong Sinuo de tanhua ary diversity, is to be welcomed if it proves [Mao Zedong's 1936 talk with Snow](Beijing: Renmin, conducive to the wide-ranging inquiry and 1979), 1, 6-9; and Qiu Ke'an, Sinuo zai Zhongguo lively discussions associated with a field in

(Snow in China] (Beijing: Sanlian, 1982).

Appearing in 1937 along with the Snow account renaissance.

was the first, perhaps rudimentary collection of Mao's
essays. For evidence on the existence of such a collec-
tion, see Mao Zedong ji (Collected writings of Mao
Zedong], ed. Takeuchi Minoru (10 vols.; Tokyo:
Hokubosha, 1971-72; Hong Kong reprint, 1975), 5:
232.
6. This and the paragraph that follows draw on Xu
Quanxing and Wei Shifeng, chief authors, Yanan shiqi
de Mao Zedong zhexue sixiang yanjiu (Studies on Mao
Zedong's philosophical thought during the Yanan pe-
riod] (Xian: Shaanxi renmin jiaoyu, 1988), chap. 11
(written by Xu); and Thomas Kampen, “Wang Jiaxiang,
Mao Zedong and the “Triumph of Mao Zedong-Thought
(1935-1945),Modern Asian Studies 23 (October 1989),
716-22.
7. Xiao San's Mao Zedong tongzhi de qingshaonian
shidai (Comrade Mao Zedong's boyhood and youth]
(originally published 1948; rev. and exp. ed.,
Guangzhou: Xinhua, 1950).
8. Zhang Min et al., "'Sannian zhunbei' de diernian"
(The second year of the three years of preparation"],
Dangde wenxian 2 (1989), 79; Mao Zedong xuanji
[Selected works of Mao Zedong] (4 vols., Beijing:
Renmin, 1952-60); Li Rui, Mao Zedong tongzhi de
chuqi geming huodong (Comrade Mao Zedong's initial
revolutionary activities) (Beijing: Zhongguo qingnian,
1957).
9. Quotes from Joint Publications Research Service,
Selections from Chairman Mao, no. 90 (JPRS no.
49826; 12 February 1970), 66,80. For guidance through
the thicket of this Cultural Revolution material, see
Timothy Cheek, “Textually Speaking: An Assessment
of Newly Available Mao Texts,” in The Secret Speeches
of Chairman Mao: From the Hundred Flowers to the
Great Leap Forward, ed. Roderick MacFarquhar et al.
(Cambridge: Harvard University Council on East Asian
Studies, 1989), 78-81; and Cheek, “The 'Genius' Mao:
A Treasure Trove of 23 Newly Available Volumes of
Post-1949 Mao Zedong Texts,” Australian Journal of
Chinese Affairs, 19-20 (January-July 1988), 337-44.
10. Mao Zedong xuanji (Selected works of Mao Zedong),
vol. 5 (Beijing: Renmin, 1977); Mao Zedong zhuzuo
xuandu (A reader of works by Mao Zedong), comp.
Zhonggong zhongyang wenxian bianji weiyuanhui (2
vols., Beijing: Renmin, 1986). More revealing than the
public “resolution on certain historical issues concern-
ing the party since the founding of the PRC” (“Guanyu
jianguo yilai dangde ruogan lishi wenti de jueyi") is the
limited circulation treatment of sensitive issues raised
by this reappraisal, in Zhonggong zhongyang dangshi
yanjiushi “Zhonggong dangshi dashi nianbiao"
bianxiezu, Zhonggong dangshi dashi nianbiao shuoming
[Elucidation of “A chronology of major events in CCP
history”) (Beijing: Zhonggong zhongyang dangxiao,
1983; “internal circulation").
11. The comments that follow draw on Paul A. Cohen,
Discovering History in China: American Historical
Writing on the Recent Chinese Past (New York: Co-
lumbia University Press, 1984); William T. Rowe,
“Approaches to Modern Chinese Social History," in
Reliving the Past: The Worlds of Social History, ed.
Olivier Zunz (Chapel Hill: University of North Caro-
lina Press, 1985), 236-96; my own “Meiguo guanyu
Zhongguo duiwai guanxishi yanjiu wenti yu qianjing"
[The study of the history of Chinese foreign relations in
the United States: problems and prospects), trans. Yuan
Ming, Lishi yanjiu (Historical studies) 3 (1988), 150-56
Philip C. C. Huang, “The Paradigmatic Crisis in Chi-
nese Studies: Paradoxes in Social and Economic His-
tory," Modern China 17 (July 1991), 299-341; and
Judith B. Farquhar and James L. Hevia, "Culture and
Postwar American Historiography of China,” positions
1 (Fall 1993), 486-525. For a helpful evaluation of the
literature on imperialism accompanied by suggestions
on fruitful modes of inquiry, see Jürgen Osterhammel,
“Semi-Colonialism and Informal Empire in Twentieth-
Century China: Towards a Framework of Analysis," in
Imperialism and After: Continuities and Discontinuities,
ed. Wolfgang J. Mommsen and Osterhammel (London:
Allen and Unwin, 1986), 290-314.
12. See e.g., Susan Naquin and Evelyn S. Rawski,
Chinese Society in the Eighteenth Century (New Ha-
ven: Yale University Press, 1987), which begins by
stressing the importance of relating the actions of the
state to the lives of even ordinary citizens” (xi).
13. Bin Yu, “The Study of Chinese Foreign Policy:
Problems and spect,” World Politics 46 (January
1994), 235-61, offers a detailed, critical appraisal of
this large body of writing. See also Friedrich W. Wu,
"Explanatory Approaches to Chinese Foreign Policy:
A Critique of the Western Literature," Studies in Com-
parative Communism 13 (Spring 1980), 41-62; and
Samuel S. Kim, “China and the World in Theory and
Practice,” in China and the World: Chinese Foreign
Relations in the Post-Cold War Era, ed. Kim (3rd rev.
ed.; Boulder, Colo.: Westview, 1994), 3-41. Both Kim,
China and the World; and Thomas W. Robinson and
David Shambaugh, eds., Chinese Foreign Policy: Theory
and Practice (Oxford, Eng.: Oxford University Press,
1994), offer a sampling of the kinds of work now being
done by political scientists. Harry Harding, “The Evo-
lution of American Scholarship on Contemporary
China,” in American Studies of Contemporary China,
ed. David Shambaugh (Armonk, N.Y.: M. E. Sharpe,
1993), 14-40, helps put this particular body of political
science work in the broader context of the general social
science literature on China.
14. Wu's 1980 survey, “Explanatory Approaches, "tied
progress in the field to better theory and methodology,
as did Michael Ng-Quinn's "The Analytical Study of
Chinese Foreign Policy,International Studies Quar-
terly 27 (June 1983), 203-24. More recently James N.
Rosenau, “China in a Bifurcated World: Competing
Theoretical Perspectives,” in Chinese Foreign Policy,
eds. Robinson and Shambaugh, 524-51, has offered a
somewhat defensive presentation along the same lines.
Bin Yu, “The Study of Chinese Foreign Policy,” 256-
59, is considerably more reserved about the prospects
for the theoretical enterprise.
15. For an early, vigorous argument for putting Mao at
the center of the policy process, see Michel Oksenberg,
“Policy Making under Mao, 1948-68: An Overview,"
in China: Management of a Revolutionary Society, ed.
John M. H. Lindbeck (Seattle: University of Washing-
ton Press, 1971), 79-115. Frederick C. Teiwes, "Mao
and His Lieutenants," Australian Journal of Chinese
Affairs 19-20 (January-July 1988), 1-80, and Roderick
MacFarquhar, The Origins of the Cultural Revolution
(New York: Columbia University Press, 1974), with
their stress on personality and sensitivity to sources, are
good examples of the application of this approach. Both
are concerned mainly with domestic politics, but their
findings have considerable import for foreign policy.
16. One distinguished China-watcher has proposed
careful examination of past forecasting as a way of
highlighting possible future interpretive problems as
well as identifying past successes. Allen S. Whiting,
“Forecasting Chinese Foreign Policy: IR Theory vs. the
Fortune Cookie,” in Chinese Foreign Policy, eds.
Robinson and Shambaugh, 506-23. This proposal
tellingly omits historical reconstruction of the very
events analysts were trying to read. Without a fresh,

well-documented picture of those events it is hard to to the lure of the experts with “inside” information. imagine measuring with any confidence the accuracy of 22. These points are treated more fully by Jürgen contemporary readings.

Osterhammel, “CCP Foreign Policy as International 17. This point is developed in chapters 5 and 6 of Hunt, History: Mapping the Field,” and by Odd Arne Westad, The Genesis of Chinese Communist Foreign Policy. “The Foreign Policies of Revolutionary Parties: The 18. Zhonghua renmin gongheguo waijiaobu and CCP in Comparative Perspective," both in Toward a Zhonggong zhongyang wenxian yanjiushi, comps., Zhou History of the Chinese Communist Foreign Relations, Enlai waijiao wenxuan (Selected diplomatic writings 1920s-1960s: Personalities and Interpretive Apof Zhou Enlai] (Beijing: Zhongyang wenxian, 1990), proaches, ed. Michael H. Hunt and Niu Jun (Washing25-27;comments by Chai Chengwenon Pu Shouchang's ton: Asia Program, Woodrow Wilson International role as Zhou's translator on this occasion, in Renwu 5 Center for Scholars, n.d.). (1992), 18. [Ed. note: For an English translation, see 23. See on some of the recent trends, Lynn Hunt, ed., Sergei N. Goncharov, John Lewis, and Xue Litai, The New Cultural History (Berkeley: University of Uncertain Partners: Stalin, Mao, and the Korean War California Press, 1989); John E. Toews, “Intellectual (Stanford, CA: University Press, 1993), 276-278.] For History after the Linguistic Turn: The Autonomy of the understandably perplexed reaction of China-watch- Meaning and Irreducibility of Ex ence,” American ers, see U.S. Department of State, Foreign Relations of Historical Review 92 (October 1987), 879-907; and the United States, vol. 7 (Washington: U.S. Govern- Bryan D. Palmer, Descent into Discourse: The ment Printing Office, 1976), 906, 912-13.

Reification of Language and the Writing of Social 19. The oft-cited authority is Andrew Nathan, “A Fac- History (Philadelphia: Temple University Press, 1990). tionalism Model for CCP Politics,” China Quarterly 53 24. Levine, Anvil of Victory; John W. Garver's Chi(January-March 1973), 34-66.

nese-Soviet Relations, 1937-1945: The Diplomacy of 20. A glance at the literature on the CCP will reveal Chinese Nationalism (New York: Oxford University numerous instances of works stressing factional struggle Press, 1988); Odd Arne Westad, Cold War and Revoluon the basis of highly circumstantial evidence. Derek J. tion: Soviet-American Rivalry and the Origins of the Waller, The Kiangsi Soviet: Mao and the National Chinese Civil War, 1944-1946 (New York: Columbia Congresses of 1931 and 1934 (Berkeley: University of University Press, 1993). California Center for Chinese Studies, 1973), sees a 25. For good examples of this notable interpretive clear split between Maoists and Russian Returned Stu- proclivity among Chinese scholars, see Hao Yufan and dents in the early 1930s, with the latter increasingly Guocang Huan, eds., The Chinese View of the World dominant over the former in the factional struggles. (New York: Pantheon, 1989); Hao Yufan and Zhai Richard C. Thornton, The Comintern and the Chinese Zhihai, “China's Decision to Enter the Korean War: Communists, 1928-1931 (Seattle: University of Wash- History Revisited,” China Quarterly 121 (March 1990), ington Press, 1969), interprets the Li Lisan period in 94-115; He Di, “The Evolution of the People's Repubstrong factional terms with leaders of each faction lic of China's Policy toward the Offshore Islands," in driven by a quest for personal power. James Reardon- The Great Powers in East Asia, 1953-1960, ed. Warren Anderson, Yenan and the Great Powers: The Origins of I. Cohen and Akira Iriye (New York: Columbia UniverChinese Communist Foreign Policy, 1944-1946 (New sity Press, 1990), 222-45; and Chen Xiaolu's, “China's York: Columbia University Press, 1980), and Steven I. Policy Toward the United States, 1949-1955,” Jia Levine, Anvil of Victory: The Communist Revolution in Qingguo, “Searching for Peaceful Coexistence and Manchuria, 1945-1948 (New York: Columbia Univer- Territorial Integrity," and Wang Jisi, “An Appraisal of sity Press, 1987), see factions defining the policy alter- U.S. Policy toward China, 1945-1955, and Its Afternatives for the CCP in 1945-1946. Reardon-Anderson math," all in Sino-American Relations, 1945-1955: A argues for a Mao-Zhou bloc favoring negotiations with Joint Reassessment of a Critical Decade, ed. Harry the Nationalists, while the ultimately victorious mili- Harding and Yuan Ming (Wilmington, Del.: Scholarly tary leaders wanted a resort to force. For his part, Resources, 1989), 184-97, 267-86, 289-310. For a Levine sees differences in strategy in the northeast base discussion of the impact of U.S. international-relations area in factional terms. Donald S. Zagoria, “Choices in approaches on Chinese scholars, marked by this single, the Postwar World (2): Containment and China,” in signal success, see Wang Jisi, “International Relations Caging the Bear: Containment and the Cold War, ed. Theory and the Study of Chinese Foreign Policy: A Charles Gati (Indianapolis: Bobbs-Merrill, 1974), 109- Chinese Perspective,” in Chinese Foreign Policy, eds. 27, puts Mao and Zhou at the head of a nationalist Robinson and Shambaugh, 481-505. group, while Liu emerges as the leader of the interna- 26. For perhaps the best known example, see Alexander tionalists. The tendency to find factions persists in the L. George and Richard Smoke, Deterrence in American studies of the post-1949 period. See for example Uri Foreign Policy: Theory and Practice (New York: CoRa'anan's and Donald Zagoria's treatments of Beijing's lumbia University Press, 1974), chap. 7. response to the Vietnam War in 1965-1966 in China in 27. I have developed this point in more detail in “Beijing Crisis, vol. 2, ed. Tang Tsou (Chicago: University of and the Korean Crisis, June 1950-June 1951," Political Chicago Press, 1968), 23-71 and 237-68, as well as Science Quarterly 107 (Fall 1992), 475-78. Michael Yahuda's response, “Kremlinology and the 28. For a helpful discussion of the rationality model,” Chinese Strategic Debate, 1965-66," China Quarterly see Kenneth Lieberthal and Michel Oksenberg, Policy 149 (January—March 1972), especially 74-75. Yahuda Making in China: Leaders, Structures, and Processes rejects easy factional explanations, while stressing the (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1988), 11-14. interaction between “foreign and domestic politics.” 29. W.R. Connor, “Why Were We Surprised?" Ameri21. For a thoughtful critique of this approach, now can Scholar 60 (Spring 1991), 175-84. Moshe Lewin, much in vogue, see Bin Yu, “The Study of Chinese The Gorbachev Phenomenon: A Historical InterpretaForeign Policy,” 244-56. Warren I. Cohen, “Conversa- tion (rev. ed.; Berkeley: University of California Press, tions with Chinese Friends: Zhou Enlai's Associates 1991); Lewin, “Russia/USSR in Historical Motion: An Reflect on Chinese-American Relations in the 1940s Essay in Interpretation,” Russian Review 50 (July 1991), and the Korean War,Diplomatic History 11 (Summer 249-66; and Stephen F. Cohen, Rethinking the Soviet 1987), 283-89, suggests that historians are not immune Experience: Politics and History since 1917 (New

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