Pearl Harbor: Warning and DecisionStanford University Press, 1962 - 426 頁 It would be reassuring to believe that Pearl Harbor was just a colossal and extraordinary blunder. What is disquieting is that it was a supremely ordinary blunder. It was a dramatic failure of a remarkably well-informed government to call the next enemy move in a cold war crisis. The results, at Pearl Harbor, were sudden, concentrated, and dramatic. The failure, however, was cumulative, widespread, and rather drearily familiar. This why surprise, when it happens to a government, cannot be described just in terms of startled people. Whether at Pearl Harbor or at the Berlin Wall, surprise is everything involved in a government's (or in an alliance's) failure to anticipate effectively. Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision is a unique physiology of a great national failure to anticipate. Wohlstetter is at pains to show how easy it was to slip into the rut in which the Japanese found us, it can only remind u how likely it is that we are in the same kind of rut right now. The danger is not that we shall read the signals and indicators with too little skill; the danger is in a poverty of expectations a routine obsessing with a few dangers that may be familiar rather than likely. Alliance diplomacy, interservice bargaining, appropriations hearings, and public discussion all seem to need to focus on a few vivid and oversimplified dangers. The planner should think in subtler and more variegated terms and all for a wider range of contingencies. But, as Wohlstetter shows, the "planners" who count are also responsible for alliance diplomacy, interservice bargaining, appropriations hearings, and public discussion; they are also very busy. This is a genuine dilemma of government. Some of its consequences are mercilessly displayed in this book. |
內容
SIGNALS FOR HONOLULU | 5 |
NOISE IN HONOLULU | 71 |
MAGIC | 170 |
Security | 176 |
Diplomatic Messages | 186 |
Espionage Messages | 211 |
Lastminute MAGIC | 219 |
WASHINGTON INTELLIGENCE | 279 |
Naval Intelligence | 312 |
常見字詞
action Admiral Kimmel Admiral Stark Admiral Turner Air Force aircraft alert American Army and Navy attachés Bicknell Bratton Britain British Burma Road cabinet carriers Chief of Staff China Colonel Commander communication December decision decoded defense Department diplomatic direct dispatch Dutch East Indies Eastern embargo embassy enemy estimate evidence Fielder Fleet Formosa Fort Shafter French Indochina Gerow Hawaii Hawaiian Hearings Honolulu hostile Hull Ibid indicated Indochina Intelligence officer intercepts islands Japan Japanese ambassadors Japanese attack July June Layton liaison MAGIC Marshall McCollum ment Miles military move Naval Intelligence negotiations Netherlands East Indies November 27 Oahu October October 16 Operations Pacific patrol Pearl Harbor attack Philippines Plans possible prepared President radio received reconnaissance Rochefort Roosevelt Russia sabotage sent ships Short Siberia signals situation sources Stimson submarines surprise testified Thailand theater tion Tokyo translated troops United warning Washington Wilkinson