III. The interplay of provincial politics and industrial growth, 1974-77. A. Politically unstable provinces with declines or slow growth__ B. Politically stable provinces with declines or slow growth....... C. Politically stable provinces with moderate or strong growth.. D. A politically unstable province with strong growth- IV. The impact of political instability on industry during the Cultural Revolution and the mid-1970's__. V. The emerging shape of industrial policy in post-Mao China. A. Provincial political stability methodology - - - B. Monthly industrial output for selected provinces in recent years.. CCP.. FBIS. Field, Lardy, and Emerson, British Broadcasting Corp., Summary of World Broadcasts, part 3, The Far East, Weekly Economic Report, and its prececessors. Chinese Communist Party. Foreign Broadcast Information Service, Daily Field, Robert Michael, Lardy, Nicholas R., and Emerson, John Philip, Provincial Industrial Output in the People's Republic of China: 1949- 75, Foreign Economic Report No. 12, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C., Gross value of industrial output. Jen-min jih-pao (People's Daily). U.S. Joint Publications Research Service. Chien-ch'ih tang-ti chi-pen lu-hsien tsai tou-cheng chung hsieh ta-ching (Uphold the Basic Party Line in the Movement to Learn from Taching), Ta-kung pao (The Impartial) (Hong Kong). "Some Problems in Speeding Up Industrial De- velopment," draft dated September 2, 1975; I. INTRODUCTION Today, when the Chinese are determined to build a strong, modern nation, the outlook for industrial performance is of concern not only to China specialists but also to policymakers, businessmen, and all who are interested in the lives and fortunes of the nearly 1 billion Chinese people. Since the rehabilitation of Teng Hsiao-p'ing, the Chinese have been quite open in discussing their past shortcomings and current problems, but they have not given us data in the form necessary for an assessment of industrial performance. Therefore, following the work that Field did with Lardy and Emerson,' we have gathered scattered statements about the growth of the gross value of industrial output (GVIO) for individual provinces in order to reconstruct the GVIO data for each of the 29 provinces and for the country as a whole. The pattern and rates of growth shown by the data are then analyzed in the light of the economic and political problems of the last decade. The GVIO data published or broadcast by the Chinese are difficult to use. First, the data are a mixture of estimates made before the end of the year, final figures, and subsequent revisions that are seldom explicitly identified; even data from a single source are sometimes inconsistent. Consider, for example, the following figures for Kwangtung: 3 Here, the revisions are small and appear to be reasonable, and the inconsistency between the annual increases and the growth for the 3 years as a whole is minor. Second, in the last year or two the Chinese have been careless in handling statistical data and, in particular, in translating them into English. The most frequent source of error has been in the translation of the character pei. For example, a Ta-kung pao English-language supplement dated September 15, 1977, reported that "[Shanghai's] total industrial output value is now more than 11 times what it was immediately after liberation," whereas it is clear from other statements that output was actually 19.3 times that of 1949. The original Chinese was probably shih to pei (which literally means "an increase of more than 10 times over" and by accepted usage "an increase of 10 to 20 times over" the value in the specified base period). Just as a twofold increase is three times, a tenfold increase is 11 times. Thus, the Chinese 1 Robert Michael Field, Nicholas R. Lardy, and John Philip Emerson, Provincial Industrial Output in the People's Republic of China; 1949-75, Foreign Economie Report No. 12, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C., 1976. 2 Provincial GVIO series for the years 1965-77 are presented in table C-1. For sources and methodology, see CIA, "The Gross Value of Industrial Output in the People's Republic of China: 1965-77," June 1978. Throughout this article, the term "province" includes the five autonomous regions and the three directly administered municipalities. The original figures are cited in FBIS, Jan. 16, 1976, H1, and FBIS, Jan. 26, 1977, H2; the revised figures. are in "Learn from Teaching," p. 67. FBIS, Dec. 8, 1977, E5. |