TABLE B-20.-MONTHLY INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT IN SZECHWAN, SELECTED MONTHS, 1976-78

January-April 1976: Derived as the difference between cumulative output through June and the sum of output in May and June.

May 1976: Derived from output in May 1977 and the statement that output in May 1977 increased 27.3 percent over May 1976. See FBIS, June 30, 1977, J3.

June 1976: Cumulative output through June 1976 was derived from cumulative output through June 1977 and the statement that output in the 1st 6 mo increased 10 percent over the corresponding period of 1976 (see FBIS, Aug. 15, 1977, J3). Estimated from output in June 1977 on the assumption that the percentage increase over June 1976 was the same as the percentage increase for May 1977 over May1976.

July-August 1976: Derived as the difference between output in the period July-September and output in September. September 1976: Cumulative output through September 1976 was derived from cumulative output through September 1977 and the statement that output in the 1st 9 mo increased 28.7 percent over the corresponding period of 1976 (see JMJP, Nov. 3, 1977). Output in September 1976 was derived from output in October 1976 and the statement that output in October increased 8.8 percent over September 1976. See FBIS, Jan. 5, 1977, J4.

October-November 1976: Cumulative output through Nov. 10 was derived from cumulative output through Nov. 10, 1977, and the statement that output increased 40 percent over the corresponding period of 1976 (see FBIS, Dec. 2, 1977). Output in the months October and November was estimated from total output in the period October-Nov. 10 and from the monthly increase in November of 20.5 percent (see FBIS, Jan. 5, 1977, J4) on the assumption that average daily output was constant in November. The equation for calculating the estimates are:

January-June 1977: Derived from the statement that 51.5 percent of the plan was fulfilled by the end of June (see JMJP, July 19, 1977). The individual months were derived from the following increases over the preceding month:

July-August 1977: Derived from cumulative output through August 1976 and the statement that output in the 1st 8 mo of 1977 increased 21.9 percent over the corresponding period of 1976. See FBIS, Oct. 7, 1977, J1.

September 1977: Derived from the statement that 83 percent of the plan was fulfilled by the end of September. See "Peking Review,'' No. 47, 1977, p. 11.

October 1977: Derived from the statement that the plan was fulfilled on Nov. 10, 1977, on the assumption that average daily output remained constant during the period. See FBIS, Dec. 10, 1977, J5.

January 1978: Derived from output in the month of January 1977 and the statement that output in January 1978 increased 73.3 percent over that of January 1977. See FBIS, Feb. 23, 1978, J4.

27-427-78-20

TABLE B-21.-MONTHLY INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT IN TSINGHAI, SELECTED MONTHS, 1976-77

January-June 1976: Derived from cumulative output through June 1977 and the statement that output in the 1st half of 1977 increased 6.8 percent over the corresponding period of 1976. See FBIS, Aug. 11, 1977, M8. July-September 1976: Derived from cumulative output through September 1977 and the statement that output in the 1st 9 mo increased 24 percent over the corresponding period of 1976. See FBIS Oct. 14, 1977, M13. January-June 1977: Derived from the statement that 46.3 percent of the plan was fulfilled by the end of June. See FBIS, Aug. 11, 1977, M8.

July-September 1977: Derived from the statement that 75 percent of the plan was fulfilled by the end of September, See FBIS, Oct. 14, 1977, M13.

TABLE B-22.-MONTHLY INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT IN YUNNAN, SELECTED MONTHS, 1975-77

January-November 1975: Derived from cumulative output through November 1977 and the statement that output in the 1st 11 mo of 1977 increased 8.5 percent over the corresponding period of 1975. See FBIS, Dec. 21, 1977, J5. January-June 1976: Derived from cumulative output through June 1977 and the statement that output in the 1st half of 1977 increased 22.9 percent over the corresponding period of 1976. See FBIS, July 14, 1977, J7. July-September 1976: Derived from cumulative output through September 1977 and the statement that output in the 1st 9 mo of 1977 increased 38.6 percent over the corresponding period of 1976. See China News Service, Kunming, Nov. 14, 1977.

October-November 1976: Derived from cumulative output through November 1977 and the statement that output in the 1st 11 mo increased 42.4 percent over the corresponding period of 1976. See Radio Kunming, Dec. 1, 1977. December 1976: Derived from the statement that the plan was fulfilled in mid-November and that output increased 18.6 percent over that for the entire year 1976. See China News Service, Kunming, Dec. 1, 1977.

January-June 1977: Derived from the statement that 51.5 percent of the plan was fulfilled by the end of June. See FBIS, July 14, 1977, 57.

July-September 1977: Derived from the statement that 86.2 percent of the plan was fulfilled by the end of September. See China News Service, Kunming, Nov. 14, 1977.

October-November 1977: Derived from the statement that 110.2 percent of the plan was fulfilled by the end of November. See FBIS, Dec. 21, 1977, J5.

December 1977: Derived from the statement that 123.3 percent of the plan was fulfilled by the end of December. See FBIS, Feb. 22, 1978, J5.

January-March 1978: Derived from the statement that output in the 1st 3 mo of 1978 increased 2.2 percent over the 4th quarter of 1977. See FBIS, Apr. 13, 1978, J3.

APPENDIX C. PROVINCIAL AND REGIONAL INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT,

1965-1977

The provincial GVIO data presented in Table C-1 were derived in CIA, "The Gross Value of Industrial Output in the People's Republic of China," June 1978. Although only two or three figures for the absolute value of provincial

industrial output have been released for the years since the collapse of the Leap Forward, it was possible to use a least squares technique to approximate the unpublished time-series from statements about increases over 1949, 1965, or the previous year. This technique is fully described in Appendix A of Field, Lardy, and Emerson, 1976.

The regional GVIO data presented in Table C-2 were derived from the provincial output data in Table C-1 by the method described in CIA, "The Gross Value of Industrial Output in the People's Republic of China: 1965-1977," June 1978. The method differs from that used in Field, Lardy, and Emerson, 1976, in two respects. First, the provincial GVIO data are weight so that years for which the data are more complete weigh more heavily in the calculations than those for which data are sparce. And second, the value for any given year can be forced to equal a reported figure or a figure derived from reported data. Because the method only approximates the underlying data, the regional GVIO series were forced to equal the estimated national total.