TABLE 3.-POPULATION BY 5-YR AGE GROUPS AND SEX, ALTERNATE MODELS, FOR SELECTED YEARS: 1953-2000-Continued E 3.-POPULATION BY 5-YR AGE GROUPS AND SEX, ALTERNATE MODELS, FOR SELECTED YEARS: 1953-2000-Continued Absolute population totals by sex for other significant age groups are given for selected years in table 4. The preschool and school ages as shown in this table are not the same as those that have been used in China up to now, but are taken from the new "Draft Plan for a TenYear Full-Time Teaching System for Primary and Middle Schools" recently promulgated by the Ministry of Education.113 The system is not yet fully in effect and can only be phased in gradually because it advances the age of admission to elementary school by 1 year and that for senior middle school by 3 years. This means that the schools must absorb extra incoming students at the new lower age levels while. still retaining students who entered under the previous system and have not completed their courses of studies. The transition will be somewhat easier at the elementary level because of the declining size of the entering cohorts. 113"New Teaching System for Primary and Middle Schools," Peking Review, No. 8, Feb. 24, 1978, p. 15, 27-427-78-32 TABLE 4.-POPULATION IN FUNCTIONAL AGE GROUPS, ALTERNATE MODELS, FOR SELECTED YEARS: The new 10-year system replaces a 12-year system that consisted of 6 years of elementary and 3 years each of junior and senior middle. school. In theory at least, students entered elementary school at age 7 and completed senior middle school at age 18, although in fact some students entered the system at a later age and some did not complete middle school. Under the new system, students would enter at age 6 and graduate from senior middle school at age 15; elementary and junior middle school programs are each shortened by 1 year. Advancing the age for elementary school reduces by 1 year the span of the preschool ages. According to the low model, the numbers of children of elementary school age increase until 1977, decline somewhat irregularly until 1993, and then rise gradually until the end of the century. According to the high model, their numbers rise until 1985, decline until 1993, then rise again through the year 2000. In the middle schools, a similar pattern appears but with a delay of 5 years. The total population of school age in China is shown as 127 million as of 1953 in all models but rises to 228 million in the low model and 272 in the high by 1980 and to 192 and 274 million, respectively, in the year 2000. The wide range of 82 million by the end of the century, plus or minus 17 percent around the intermediate model figure of 236 million, indicates the importance of success in birth control for the scale of educational services that will be required in the future. The working age population is assumed to include the same ages that were so designated by PRC labor force specialists in the 1950'sages 16 to 50 years for males and 16 to 55 years for females. In all models, the population in the working ages increases from 1953 through the end of the century. In 1953 all models show a working age population of 310 million. By the year 2000, the low model projects a total of 787 million and the high model 883 million, a range of only plus or minus 7 percent around the intermediate model total of 840 million. The population in the retirement ages consists of men aged 61 and over and women aged 56 and over. Their numbers increase from 35 million in 1953 to 147 million in the low model and 125 in the high model by the year 2000. Although the low figure implies more than a tripling of their numbers in the 47-year period, they still constitute a relatively small burden on the massive population of working ages, but their numbers are rising rapidly as the century ends. The dependency burden will be much greater in the 21st century. The numbers of males in the prime military ages, ages 18 to 22 years, do not give the full measure of the military manpower resources |