managed campaign to succeed in breaking out above the subsistence levels of production they have maintained for centuries.

A rapid increase in output during the current 10-year plan, or great early success in controlling the population growth rate, could raise output per capita even sooner and more substantially. Nevertheless, Chinese agriculture is still vulnerable to the weather, and natural disasters of varying degree are inevitable. Occasional serious calamities have to be expected and planned for realistically. Without an increase over present subsistence levels, agriculture will continue to exert a downward pull on the rest of the economy's growth; the agricultural base will not have been made secure.

TABLE 5.-CHINA: GRAIN AND COTTON PRODUCTION ESTIMATES!

1 Field, Robert Michael, and James A. Kilpatrick, "Chinese Grain Production: An Interpretation of the Data." The China Quarterly, No. 74, June 1978, pp. 369–384.

2 Output and net import or exports.

For years 1949-74 see Alva Lewis Erisman, "China: Agriculture in the 1970's," p. 324 of the 1975 JEC volume, China: A Reassessment of the Economy. 1975: Output was assumed to fall; only a good harvest was claimed. (FBIS, Jan. 5, 1976, p. E2.) 1976: Cotton at best did not decline. No claim was made for 1976. 1977: Cotton output increased but no record was claimed. (FBIS, Dec. 27, 1977, p. E1.) Cotton output stagnant for last 10 years, 1977 production up more than 3 times 1949. (JMJP, Apr. 19, 1978, p. 1.)

Hogs:

SOURCES

1949-57-Midyear figures: K. C. Yeh, "Gross Value of Output and Value Added in the Agricultural Sector, 19521957," table A.12, p. 34. Mimeograph, 1977.

1956-57-Yearend (higher) figures: Ibid, p. 40. The 1957 yearend figure of 127,800,000 is accepted because of its authoritative sources and the fact that it was published late enough to have been a final estimate. It falls in the middle of the range of 125,000,000 to 130,000,000 head reported earlier in various sources before the Great Leap claim of 145,900,000 head.

1965-The 1972 figure was reportedly 55 percent higher than in 1965 (see FBIS, Sept. 19, 1973, p. B8) and 330 parcent higher than in 1949 (see Hung Ch'i, No. 4, 1973, p. 49); the 1965 figure, then, can be calculated to be 2.774 times the 1949 figure of 57,752,000.

1970-11 percent less than in 1971. See FBIS, Mar. 28, 1972, p. B2.

1971-14 percent less than in 1972. See BBC, FE/W654/A/1, Dec. 31, 1972.

1972-Reported to be 4.3 times the 1949 figure (see Hung Ch'i, No. 4, 1973, p. 49).

1973-51 percent greater than in 1965. See Tsen-yang Yang-chu (2d ed.), p. 2. Shanghai: People's Publishing House, 1976.

1974 The number reportedly increased 4.5-fold over 1949 (see FBIS, Nov. 24, 1975, p. E1). We take this to mean that the number in stock was 4.5 times the 1949 figure.

1977-Figure given to Dr. M. E. Ensminger by Prof. Y. Z. Tang of the Peking Agricultural University.

Large animals:

1949, 1951-57-K. C. Yeh, loc. cit. Total of cattle (including water buffalo), horses, donkeys, mules and camels. 1950-Cattle from K. C. Yeh, loc. cit. Others estimated as the mean of 1949 and 1951 figures.

1958-FBIS, Apr. 15, 1959, P. BBB8.

1967-Reported to have equalled or exceeded the previous peak (see "Peking Review," No. 41, Oct. 11, 1968, p. 33). 1972-The number increased by 59 percent, compared to 1949. See FBIS, Sept. 19, 1973, p. 87.

Sheep and goats:

1949-57-K. C. Yeh, loc. cit.

1958-FBIS, Apr. 15, 1959, p. BBB8.

1972-Reportedly increased 3.5-fold over 1949; this is assumed to mean that the number in 1972 was 3.5 times the 1949 number (see FBIS, Sept. 19, 1973, p. B7). 1977-Number given to M. E. Ensminger by Prof. Y. Z. Tang of the Peking Agricultural University.

Note: 1949-74-National Foreign Assessment Center, CIA, "China: Economic Indicators," October 1977, p. 12. 1975

77-Unpublished research of Fred Smith.

1 Conventional: Unpublished research of Jim Lewek. Garden: National Foreign Assessment Center, CIA, "China: Economic Indicators," October 1977, p. 13.

2 Negligible.

SOURCES

Table 9:

1949-75-National Foreign Assessment Center, CIA, "China: Economic Indicators," October 1977, p. 13. 1977-FBIS, Nov. 22, 1977. p. E18.

Table 10:

1949-75-National Foreign Assessment Center, CIA, "China: Economic Indicators," October 1977. p. 13. 1976-77-Unpublished research of Judy Flynn."

Table 11:

1949-57-State Statistical Bureau, "Ten Great Years," Peking, 1960, p. 130.

1963-64-It was reported in 1963 that about of China's cultivated land was irrigated, and that some which had been destroyed by floods had yet to be rebuilt. See SCMP No. 3118, Dec. 12, 1963, pp. 8-10. A Hong Kong source gives a 1964 figure of nearly 500,000,000 mou," implying that irrigated acreage was less than 33,300,000 hectares. See "Ching-chi T'ao-pao" (Economic Reporter) No. 895, Nov. 16, 1964, p. 20.

1973-Figure for 1973 given to the Water Resources Delegation during their visit the following year. See Nickum, James E., "Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources in the People's Republic of China," p. 51. Stanford, Calif.: United States-China relations program, 1977.

1974-2,000,000 hectares more than in 1973. See FBIS, Dec. 19, 1974, p. E1.

1977-Said to be nearly half the arable land, and 3 times the figure for the early post-liberation stage. See FBIS, Sept. 19, 1977, p. £5.

7. Fitted, projected, and actual net wheat and coarse grain imports, 1969-78

APPENDIX TABLES

Page

653

654

654

659

666

668

655

656

658

659

661

664

665

1. PRC grain trade, by grain, 1961-77..

2. PRC grain imports by country of origin, 1961-76.

I. SUMMARY

669 670

The pattern of grain trade of the People's Republic of China (PRC) shifted abruptly in 1961 when China began a large grain import program. Although the PRC has continued to export rice, it has remained a net importer of grains despite slowly rising per capita grain production. During the 1970's, the annual variability of China's grain trade has increased considerably.

Grain imports have become less important in comparison with national grain production, but continue to provide an important part of grain supplies in the urban areas of northern China, as well as adding significantly to the total supply of wheat, a preferred foodgrain. During the 1970's, grain imports have followed fluctuations in per capita production of grains, suggesting that imports have been closely tied to state grain procurements from rural areas in northern China.

China's rice exports have covered a substantial part of the costs of grain imports and the net cost of grain imports has fluctuated far less than the quantity of imports. The level of rice exports appears to be correlated with the cost of the grain import program and to a lesser extent with the level of per capita rice production. But, available information does not provide a full explanation of the determinants of rice exports.