Rationality and the Analysis of International Conflict

This book is both an exposition and a defence of a social scientific approach to conflict in international relations. Professor Nicholson addresses two central questions. To what extent can we usefully discuss behaviour in violent or potentially violent international conflict as rational? How do we formulate and test theories in international relations so that we can rationally believe in them? After outlining social scientific approaches to international relations, the author describes the problems of rational decision making in conflict situations. He shows how rationality is in many strategic situations hard to define and often leads to paradoxes such as the prisoners' dilemma. Psychological stress can further result in the distortion of decision processes in times of crisis. Professor Nicholson pays particular attention to such distortions and also analyses how unconscious motivation relates to the rational choice framework. In the following part, the author explores rational beliefs about the international system. He examines theories of arms races, alliances and the international problems of ecology. Here he is critical of the classical school of international relations for a lack of rigour in dealing with the problems of evidence and belief. Finally, he discusses the philosophy of science, policy and ethics. With its emphasis on social scientific approaches, theory building and testing--and above all its clarity and accessibility--Rationality and the analysis of international conflict provides students with a key to understanding the complex field of conflict analysis. This book will therefore be core reading for courses on international relations, and it will also be read by students and specialists of political science and economics.