have been to see at that time the sons of Louis Philippe, absolved and reconciled, take their seat upon the lilies, while remaining, according to the formula of 1830, "soldiers of the tricolor flag."

This was a very refined policy, all in half-lights, tact, reserve, in which the task was to surprise everybody a little for the good of everybody; a difficult policy at a period when everything was done in open daylight and with plenty of noise ; still more difficult for a man whose instrument was the tribune, whose witnesses were parties, and who, in proposing to disentangle webs, ravelled by long errors, would need not only silence, but time. Expectant At this point perhaps the bottom Tactics of the Duc de Broglie's thoughts is revealed, for he worked with obvious perseverance to secure the aid of that auxiliary, time. In order to gain time, he turned out M. Thiers; in order to gain time, his supple tactics maintained terms with the Bonapartist party, necessary as an ally, embarrassing as a confidant, dangerous as a rival; in order to gain time, he prepared from afar the combination of the Septennate, which was to watch events by placing Marshal MacMahon like a sentinel at the meeting-point of the three monarchical parties.

Such a state of affairs might in fact come to pass; there might be an abdication of the Comte de Chambord, or the death of that prince, or, better still, a generous effusion of the elder branch renouncing in favour of the younger, which would have left the ground open to the preferred heir, to the "last hope." 1 It might be said that the Duc de Broglie lived See below the letter of the Duc de Broglie of November 3, 1873.

waiting for that hour, and that he restricted himself among so many crosses and windings to preparing a solution, which did not depend upon him, and which was refused him by the practice of politics, by the situations taken up, by passions, and by

nature.

Thus would be explained the calculated and yet watchful inertia of that indisputably sagacious and determined mind. Perhaps, too, religion had found its way to him, with resignation to the Divine will, and some fatalism. Perhaps, after all, he took a pleasure in weaving this web, crouching among these complications, being, in the phrase of Cardinal Richelieu, one of those subtle intellects 'who, in trying to sharpen the points of their needles overmuch, break them."

Forces

of the

Installed in office, the Duc de Broglie

examined the situation, counted his Conservative forces and those of his opponents.

Party At the Élysée his relative, Marshal MacMahon, was surrounded by safe men, aware of the opinions of the group, intelligent, keen, fit to see, foresee, and parry sudden difficulties, to anticipate and cover, when necessary, failures in tact or vigour : the most prominent was the Vicomte Emmanuel d'Harcourt. Mme. de MacMahon was a remarkable woman, bringing into politics the ardour of faith and conviction, concealing under a somewhat heavy exterior the shrewdness and tenacity of her sex; she could be counted upon. Thus everything was provided for in this quarter.

Through the Minister of the Interior and the superintendence of the police, placed at that time in the hands of M. Léon Renault, the Vice-President of the Council kept watch over Paris and France at

a time when secret intrigues displayed an unparalleled activity in all the camps. In his service were men who listened to all that was said in parliamentary trains, in the offices of the newspapers, in the boxes at the theatres, and at political meetings. In society, in the clubs, he was kept informed of all that circulated and often guided opinion in that narrow space which, extending from the Faubourg St. Germain to the boulevards, and from the Faubourg St. Honoré to the PalaisRoyal, forms the "Tout Paris."

Among his colleagues in the Ministry, he was, in every sense of the word, "premier." Alone of the five dukes he formed part of the combination. Neither the Duc d'Audiffret-Pasquier, nor the Duc Decazes appeared in it. However, two influential Legitimists, MM. Ernoul and de La Bouillerie, kept in contact with Frohsdorf; through M. Magne and certain colleagues from the Eure, communications were secured with the Bonapartists. The other Ministers were devoted to him personally, or at least to the cause which he served.

The Assembly was was his citadel. He kept a careful account of sure votes and doubtful votes, whether on one side or the other; he foresaw the gains or the losses, the possible disappearances; he discounted evolutions and fallings away. The majority existed; but it increased or weakened, according to the question put before it, with a perpetual flux of aggregation and disaggregation. On the 24th of May, it had only amounted to thirteen votes. It had rapidly increased according to the customary law, for "victory always

1 See Louis Passy, Le Marquis de Blosseville, 8vo, Evreux, 1898.

makes prisoners." It might amount to about sixty votes on the great days, when everybody surrendered to the appeal of the consecrated formulas "Conservative union" or "Social defence."

But when more delicate questions were concerned, if dynastic or electoral rivalries were touched upon, it fell away and crumbled. The little Bonapartist group was for ever threatening to break off its bargain. Further, there were the four Rights -"four too many," said one of their number: the extreme Right or Light Horse, the moderate Right, the Right centre, the independent or Changarnier Right. In each of these groups were men of eminence or distinction, heads, opinions, capacities, susceptibilities.

Such were the troops with whose aid the battle had to be fought, who had to be incessantly rallied, kept up, satisfied, disciplined and drilled at each fresh engagement. It is true that the vigilant and vigorous support of President Buffet could be reckoned on-not that this personage was always accommodating, but he was an honourable man, and, for a time, considered himself pledged.

The danger lay in the inclination of the country, of the body of electors. Recent bye-elections had been unsatisfactory. In consequence of options, resignations, or deaths since February, 1871, in 154 elections twenty-three republican and four imperial deputies had replaced twenty-seven notoriously monarchist deputies. The time was coming when, unless a remedy was applied, the majority would become imperceptibly reversed. It is true that this gradual revolution was attributed to the per

"she

sonal influence of M. Thiers, who was said to favour Jacobinism and a legal Commune. " France is Conservative," it was added; votes with the Government which reassures her, and against the party, whichever it be, which represents change.'

Thus it was necessary to take possession of power, to assume the direction of opinions, to save the future, while there was still time. Otherwise the evil would be past curing. Urgency was indicated from every quarter. "Even in the West, Mgr. Fournier, Bishop of Nantes, says that he does not think that there are more than five or six Departments intact, and that is without mention of the towns of any importance. The peasants detest the townfolk. 'No more frock-coats,' say they, 'nothing but blouses.' At the next elections they will repulse the Conservatives, the Legitimists, and especially the clericals." We may judge of the other Departments in which the levelling and democratic habit of mind had long been confirmed.

Which were the forces which could be counted on to meet this state of affairs?

First, the active devotion of the Conservative interests, solidly based on money and property; secondly, local and territorial influences, fragments of the ancient aristocracies and directing classes; then, in certain provinces, and notably in the West, the residue of traditional veneration abiding in the people, and especially in the peasants; lastly, the adhesion of the mass of rural landed proprietors through fear of radical propaganda leading to the socialist peril.

1 Journal de Fidus, p. 107.